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Crimson Tide Expected To Continue To Dominate Vols

Bryce Young & Alabama heavy favorites at home against Tennessee Volunteers.

Alabama (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) looked like its old self last week, bouncing back from an upset loss at Texas A&M to beat Mississippi State by 40 points. Another dominant effort from the Tide is expected when Alabama hosts Tennessee (4-3, 3-4), which has lost the last 14 meetings by an average of 25.7 points.

Tennessee Volunteers vs Alabama Crimson Tide
  • Date/Time: October 23, 7 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Bryant-Denny Stadium
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: Alabama -23.5 | O/U 67.5 (Line History)
  • Tennessee vs Alabama Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

Bettors seem to believe in Alabama again, betting the Tide up to 26.5-point favorites by the time of writing Sunday night. Four of Alabama’s last five wins over Tennessee have come by 31 points or more.

Tennessee News & Notes

The Volunteers suffered numerous injuries in last week’s loss to Ole Miss, and we’re not even including the national black eye the program received after fans pelted the field with debris late in the fourth quarter.

The most significant injury came to starting quarterback Hendon Hooker, who threw for 233 yards and ran for 108 before being helped off the field on Tennessee’s final drive.

Joe Milton, who lost the starting job to Hooker a few weeks into the season, finished the game for Tennessee and drove the Vols within eight yards of the winning touchdown before time expired. Whether Milton gets the start against Alabama or Hooker can return to the lineup, neither might get much protection behind a banged-up offensive line that lost yet another starter to injury against Ole Miss.

It all adds up to Tennessee likely having a conservative plan offensively against Alabama, an approach the Volunteers seem to use against all SEC opponents. The Vols have gone UNDER the total in eight of their last 11 conference games, six of their last eight as an underdog, and 13 of their last 17 against teams with winning SU records.

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Alabama News & Notes

A week after being stunned by Texas A&M, the Crimson Tide rebounded to rout Mississippi State 49-9 and easily cover as 17.5-point favorites. Quarterback Bryce Young led the way with 348 passing yards and four touchdowns as the Tide racked up 543 total yards and converted 12 of 16 third downs. Defensively, they had seven sacks and forced three turnovers.

“We came back focused and kept our heads up. We didn’t want to feel the way we did last week,” Alabama linebacker Will Anderson told ESPN after the game. “It really carried over to this week and we did a great job this week.”

It’s hard to imagine Alabama not building on that momentum returning home, where the Crimson Tide have covered nine of their last 10 games. The Tide have also had their way recently with the Volunteers, winning the last 14 meetings by an average of 25.7 points.

How Tennessee Will Cover

As much as the Volunteers might try to slow the pace and keep things low-scoring, they’ll still need to score some points in order to stay inside this number. Alabama has scored at least 45 points in four of the last five meetings, so the Vols likely need to find a way to get into the 20s.

How Alabama Will Cover

The Tide were extremely focused last week following a loss, and it showed in a 40-point rout of Mississippi State. If Alabama can maintain that level of intensity against Tennessee — something that might be easier with a bye on deck — the Tide should roll to an easy win and cover.

Computer Pick: Tennessee +27.5

For more college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • The UNDER is 8-3 in Tennessee’s last 11 SEC games.
  • Alabama is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.
  • Alabama is 14-0 SU in its last 14 games vs Tennessee.