Bears Welcome Longhorns As Slight Favorites

Baylor (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) has been a good story and is undefeated at home, while Texas (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) is coming off devastating back-to-back losses, blowing fourth-quarter leads both times. Baylor opened as a 2.5-point favorite in the Big 12 showdown, which feels about right when factoring in the Longhorns’ firepower.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

After blowing leads to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, Texas needs to regroup, but it won’t come easy this week. There isn’t much value getting 2.5 points for Texas considering none of its games have been decided by three points or less. But there is tremendous value on the total. Texas scores points in bunches, and Baylor’s last two games have seen 65 and 62 points. Texas should be able to push this game into the low 70s, making this a very juicy line.

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Texas News & Notes

After what appeared to be a promising start, Texas has lost two straight to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but the offense has looked very good recently. Quarterback Casey Thompson has solidified the spot under center and halfback Bijan Robinson leads the Big 12 with 924 rushing yards, third-best in the country.

Texas has struggled against upper-tier competition, going 1-2 vs ranked teams, with the one win coming against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. In fact, the Longhorns have just two wins over teams that are at least .500. This game will be a good measuring stick for the Texas program.

Baylor News & Notes

After a tough loss to Oklahoma State, the Bears have rebounded, defeating West Virginia and No. 19 BYU, both by at least 14 points. Baylor has a 2-1 record against ranked opponents, and just one of its wins was by single digits.

Baylor has not lost at home this year in four outings but has struggled against Texas for a long time. The Longhorns have won six of the last 10 meetings, and previously had a 12-game win streak over Baylor that ended in 2009.

This Baylor team is different, though, and Texas coming off two brutal losses will make this a very interesting game.

How Texas Will Cover

The Longhorns’ best bet with Baylor is to force the game into a shootout, where they have the advantage. If they can do that, they should be able to keep it very close.

How Baylor Will Cover

The Bears have a very easy path to covering: Play turnover-free football and control the game with their offense. Their defense has been solid, but if they can limit the possessions for Texas, it’ll be much easier to score with Steve Sarkisian’s offense.

Computer Pick: Texas +2.5

For more Week 9 college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.