After losing at LSU midway through the season, Georgia won its next five games by an average score of 41.6-18.4. However, Alabama’s 35-28 comeback win over the Bulldogs in the SEC championship game dropped Kirby Smart’s squad to 11-2 overall and knocked UGA out of the College Football Playoff. Still, Georgia is 8-5 against the spread and has covered five of its last six games, including that straight-up loss to the Crimson Tide (+12). The OVER has hit in six of its past seven games.
Texas finished the season 9-4 overall but was 5-7-1 against the spread. While four of the Longhorns’ nine wins came against ranked opponents, all four were at home. Tom Herman’s squad was 3-1 straight up but 1-3 against the spread on the road, including a 24-17 win at Kansas when favored by 15.5 points. The Longhorns are 2-5-1 against the spread over their past eight with three consecutive UNDERS.
Georgia opened as an 11.5-point favorite before backers of the Bulldogs pushed the spread to -13. Texas’ moneyline opened at +330 before a jump to +375 and the point total opened at 57, but now sits at 58.
Keep in mind the Sugar Bowl dates back to 1935, but the average point total in the previous 84 is just 38.4 points. Since 2000, the Sugar Bowl average total has swelled to 55.2 points with a 12.7-point average margin of victory. Since 2015, when the Sugar Bowl was added to the College Football Playoff, the average total has been 57.3 points and the average margin of victory a whopping 17.3 points.
- Georgia is 6-2 SU in its last eight games vs the Big 12.
- Georgia is 18-0 SU in its last 18 games as a double-digit favorite.
- The total has gone UNDER in Texas’s last three games (avg. combined score: 47.0).
Texas vs Georgia Sugar Bowl Game Center
WHAT WE KNOW, LEARNED & MATCHUPS TO CONSIDER
Georgia – The Bulldogs average 7.25 yards per play on offense, which ranks fourth nationally.
Granted it was a month ago, but quarterback Jake Fromm is coming off arguably the best game of his career after he completed 25 of 39 passes for 301 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Alabama’s defense in the SEC championship game.
In that game, the Crimson Tide’s rush defense held the Bulldogs’ 12th-ranked rush offense – that averages 252 yards per game – to 153 yards. With the Longhorns also boasting a stout rush defense that has allowed 136 rush yards per game and just 3.88 yards per rush this season, Fromm could be asked to carve up Texas’ 115th-ranked pass defense that has allowed 265 pass yards per game. Note: graded on pass-happy Big 12 curve.
The Bulldogs are 4-0-1 against the spread in their past five bowl games with three consecutive OVERS.
Texas – Quarterback Sam Ehlinger will need to have the game of his life to pull off this Sugar Bowl upset. While he has scored 13 rushing touchdowns, the option trigger averages just 2.9 yards per rush and is a member of a three-back committee ranked 94th in rushing yards per game. Plus, Georgia’s defense ranks 28th against the run. So, Ehlinger will have to go to the air to keep the chains moving.
Most national college football pundits believe the 1-on-1 matchup to watch in this game is Longhorns receiver Collin Johnson against Bulldogs defensive back Deandre Baker. At six-foot-six and 220 pounds, Johnson has the size advantage over the five-foot-10 Baker. However, Pro Football Focus graded Baker as the second-best defensive back in the SEC and NFL draft scouts believe he could be the second cornerback selected next spring.
The Longhorns defense has allowed opposing offenses to convert 44.2 percent of their third downs, which ranks 108th in the nation. As if the Bulldogs offense needed another bullet to fire, Texas hands them one.
ATLANTA, GA FORECAST AND KICKERS
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – again.
One of the more reliable kickers in college football, Georgia’s Rodrigo Blankenship has connected on 19 of 23 field goals and all 62 extra points this season. Texas’ freshman foot Cameron Dicker has made 16 of 22 field goals and 49 of 50 extra points.
MY LEAN
The only facet of this matchup that concerns me when leaning Georgia -13 is players’ internal monologue of “Man, we should be playing in the CFP and not be on the outside looking in” factor. Will every player give 110 percent to cover by two touchdowns?
For me, it’s a yes and with the way Fromm looked against Alabama, here’s another great opportunity in the prime-time spotlight to add to his highlight reel.
I’m leaning Georgia covers -13 and the OVER.
