Lawtez Rogers Maryland

Can Maryland Regain Focus for Season Opener?

It’s never easy for a Division I football program to deal with turmoil heading into the regular season, but the Maryland Terrapins find themselves in that very position as they prepare to host the Texas Longhorns in their season opener Saturday at FedExField. The Terrapins have had an emotional two weeks, beginning with the heatstroke death of offensive tackle Jordan McNair, who collapsed following an on-field workout. The school is being investigated for its role in McNair’s death, and for what is being reported as a “toxic culture” in a locker room led by head coach D.J. Durkin. Concern about the Terrapins’ preparedness and emotional state ahead of Saturday’s encounter with the Longhorns has played a role in the line being pushed from Maryland +10 all the way up to +13 – and more movement could be in the offing as we approach kickoff. The total for this one was at 56, down slightly from its opener. This game is a rematch of the season opener for both teams in 2017, with Maryland pulling out a wild 51-41 victory at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium last Sept. 2.

SHARK BITES
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Texas’s last eight games.
  • Maryland is 3-30 SU in its last 33 games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The Terrapins have gone 3-7-1 ATS in 11 games as a home underdog of 10 to 15 points.

Click here to view the Texas-Maryland Matchup Page

Maryland’s O-line should yield better results

It’s rare to have a team return all five of its starters on the offensive line, but the Terrapins are one of the lucky ones. New Maryland offensive coordinator Matt Canada will run a similar spread system to the one operated by his predecessor, Walt Bell, and having his entire starting line return should yield much better results for an offense that was positively dismal in 2017. Maryland comes in having ranked 120th out of 129 Division I teams in total yards per game (323.3), averaging just 161.7 yards through the air while going through four starting quarterbacks due to an assortment of injuries. How bad did things get for the Terrapins? After scoring a combined 114 points in victories over Texas and Towson to open the season, Maryland managed just 175 points over its final 10 games – going 2-8 SU over that stretch. Struggles on offense led to a huge burden being placed on the Terrapins’ overworked D – and it showed, as the Terrapins surrendered a whopping 37.1 points per game, 11th most in Division I.

Nobody does unders like the Longhorns

Few teams in NCAA football have been more consistent totals plays than the Longhorns. Texas enters its 2018 season opener as an incredible UNDER option, having gone beneath the number in 17 of its past 20 regular-season games. That includes seven of the Longhorns’ previous eight contests, during which they’ve finished an average of 15.1 points below the total (a figure aided by a 13-10 loss to Oklahoma State last Oct. 21 in a game that boasted a total of 65). Texas hasn’t come within a touchdown of the number in any of its previous nine UNDERs, all of which have occurred within its last 11 games. One of the main reasons for the spate of UNDERs: a much-improved defense that surged from 60th to 21st in Defensive S&P+ last season, and one that returns the majority of its starters from last season. It also helped UNDER bettors that Texas finished an underwhelming 99th in Offensive S&P+ in 2017, and without any major additions on that front, the Longhorns could be in for more low-scoring affairs.

Is this spread Texas’ magic number?

This is shaping up as a great spot for Texas to open the season with a bang. The Longhorns have traditionally been an incredible spread option in these circumstances, having gone 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 10 to 15 points. That includes an active streak of six straight covers, during which the Longhorns have won by an average of 29.2 points. In other words, the Longhorns haven’t just covered low double-digit spreads as a road fave – they’ve obliterated them. And with the specter of a much-publicized investigation hanging over the Terrapins’ entire football program, you could make a solid case that this spread should be higher. Regardless of whether it climbs out of the 10-15 range by the time these teams take the field, it’s clear that the Longhorns represent great value in this game, both straight up and against the spread.

The total has gone UNDER in seven of Texas’s last eight games.away Maryland is 3-30 SU in its last 33 games as a double-digit underdog.home The Terrapins have gone 3-7-1 ATS in 11 games as a home underdog of 10 to 15 points.home
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