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Auburn vs LSU: SEC betting preview

LSU opened as a 14-point favorite over an Auburn team off to a solid start under first-year coach Gus Malzahn.

Auburn rallied behind quarterback Nick Marshall to knock off Mississippi State last week and improve to 3-0 under Malzahn, the Tigers’ offensive coordinator on their 2010 national championship team. But a trip to Death Valley will be by far their toughest test so far.

LSU has won five of six over Auburn, but covered the spread in only three of those games. LSU squeaked out a 12-10 win at Auburn last season as an 18-point favorite.

After opening with an impressive win over TCU, LSU has blown out back-to-back cupcakes in UAB and Kent State. Auburn is step up in competition, and LSU has not fared well against the spread in conference play, going 3-6 against the spread in its last nine SEC games.

Auburn has lost six in a row at LSU since their last win here in 1999, according to the Odds Shark college football database.

View Auburn vs LSU Odds and Stats.

Auburn vs LSU Betting Line: Sportsbooks such as TopBet had the Tigers pegged as 14-point favorites in this matchup. The total, meanwhile, 56 over at Bovada as of midweek, check for line moves.

Power Rankings / Prediction: This game matches up the No. 50 (Tigers) and the No. 77 (Tigers) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 55-42 result in favor of the LSU Tigers is predicted by handicapping models.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up LSU's No. 12-ranked offense (46 PPG) against a Tigers defense that ranks No. 32 at 17.7 PPG. The Tigers passing attack has averaged 269.3 yards per game, less than the Tigers give up through the air (276.3 YPG on average).

Last time out for Auburn, they were a 24-20 winner as they battled Mississippi State at home. Auburn failed to cover in the match as a 6.5-point favorite, while 44 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. In Auburn's last outing, Nick Marshall threw for 339 yards to lead the Tigers over Mississippi State 24-20 at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

In their last action, LSU was a 45-13 winner at home against Kent State. They failed to cover the 36-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (58) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Jeremy Hill ran through the Kent State defense for 117 yards in LSU's last game, handing the Golden Flashes a 45-13 setback on Saturday at Tiger Stadium.

Auburn Tigers Trends:
When playing in September are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the conference are 1-9

LSU Tigers Trends:
When playing in September are 10-0
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 7-3

A few Tigers at Tigers trends to consider:
Auburn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Auburn's last 13 games when playing LSU
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn's last 6 games when playing on the road against LSU
Auburn is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LSU
LSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Auburn
LSU is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
LSU is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
LSU is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Auburn

Next up:
Auburn home to Mississippi, Saturday, October 5
LSU at Georgia, Saturday, September 28