Two of the country’s most prolific passers will be on display in Boca Raton when the Cougars (10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) take on the Knights (6-3, 3-6). BYU’s Zach Wilson and UCF’s Dillon Gabriel both threw for more than 3,200 yards and 30 touchdowns this season. Oddsmakers expect both to shine again in this one, Sportsbook the total at an eye-popping 72.5.
- Date/Time: December 22, 7 p.m. ET
- Stadium: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Fla.
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: BYU -5 | O/U 72.5 (Line History)
- UCF vs BYU Matchup Report
Boca Raton Bowl Odds Analysis
There’s been plenty of early support for the Cougars, moving the point spread up to -6.5 at most sportsbooks by the time of writing Sunday night. Central Florida has been an underdog just once this season and only four times dating back to 2016, going 3-1 ATS in that span.
Central Florida News & Notes
Gabriel might have led the nation in passing yards if he hadn’t played two fewer games than Florida’s Kyle Trask and Alabama’s Mac Jones. Despite suiting up in just nine games, Gabriel’s 3,353 yards and 30 passing touchdowns still ranked third in the FBS. As a team, the Knights were second in the country in total offense and averaged the fifth-most points.
However, Central Florida will be without one of its top offensive weapons in the Boca Raton Bowl as senior wideout Marlon Williams opted out of the postseason. Williams had 1,039 receiving yards and scored 10 touchdowns for UCF.
Despite the gaudy offensive numbers, the Knights finished the season unranked after being listed as high as No. 11 earlier this year. That’s because of their defense, which has been torched for a combined 78 points in its last two games and allowed at least 34 points in five of its last seven outings. Combine that with an offense that scored 40-plus in six of nine games this year and it’s no surprise that UCF went 6-3 to the OVER this season.
BYU News & Notes
Wilson has enjoyed a breakout campaign, throwing for nearly as many yards (3,267) and touchdowns (30) this year as he had in his previous two seasons combined. This could be the final appearance in a Cougars uniform for the signal-caller, with speculation swirling that the junior may declare himself eligible for next year’s NFL draft. With Wilson at the helm, BYU’s offense finished the season sixth in points scored and eighth in total yards.
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The Cougars defense might still be the team’s best unit after allowing the third-fewest points in the FBS this season and ranking ninth in total yards allowed. BYU has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less, and hasn’t given up more than 26 points in a game this season. However, it hasn’t faced an offense as prolific as UCF’s either.
Betting Pick: BYU -6.5
Of the few defensive stops we’ll likely see in this game, I trust BYU to get the majority of them. The Cougars have easily covered all three games they’ve played this season when favored by a touchdown or less, winning each by at least 17 points.
- UCF is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
- BYU is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 playoff games.
- The OVER is 7-3 in UCF’s last 10 (avg combined score: 75.5).
