Brandon Moore

UCF Looks to Lock in New Year’s Plans

UCF won’t be playing for the national championship no matter how it fares Friday – but there’s still a lot at stake for the Knights as they travel to Raymond James Stadium for a date with rival South Florida. For starters, there’s the matter of UCF’s NCAA-best 23-game winning streak, and a shot at going into its bowl game in search of a second consecutive unbeaten season. And then there’s the chance that the Knights won’t get a New Year’s Six bowl berth if they’re upset by the Bulls on Friday.

UCF continued its incredible run last weekend with a 38-13 evisceration of the Cincinnati Bearcats, as star quarterback McKenzie Milton passed for three touchdowns and ran in another score. The Bulls began the season with seven consecutive victories but have since seen the wheels fall off, having lost each of their past four games while allowing an average of 40 points per game over that span. UCF opened as a 14.5-point road favorite.

SHARK BITES
  • UCF is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs USF.
  • USF is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games vs its conference.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of UCF’s last six games vs its conference.

UCF vs USF Game Center

Doing it With Defense

Say what you will about the Knights offense – and there’s plenty to say, given that it has produced no fewer than 31 points in any game this season – but the defense deserves your attention as well. UCF is allowing just over 20 points per game in 2018, good for 22nd in Division I. That has helped the Knights go an impressive 7-3 ATS despite being favored in every game.

That stout defense – one that has limited foes to under 206 passing yards per contest – has also made the Knights a great UNDER option. UCF has gone below the total in seven of 10 games this season despite boasting the sixth-highest scoring average in the nation. South Florida, on the other hand, has averaged just 22.8 points over the course of its four-game losing skid.

Oddsmakers still haven’t adjusted sufficiently to compensate for the Knights’ attention to defense – so look toward the UNDER as UCF looks to shut down a struggling USF offense in its regular-season finale.

No Time to Waste

Let’s get back to that relentless UCF offense for a moment. As you might expect, the Knights are one of the most prolific first-quarter teams in the nation – and while oddsmakers are sure to account for this in setting the team’s Sportsbook-quarter point total, the Knights are still a great bet to go OVER with help from a Bulls side that has struggled to contain teams in the early going.

As bad as things have been for South Florida of late, they’ve actually improved their first-quarter defense compared to their season-long success rate. The Bulls have allowed Division I opponents to average 8.3 first-quarter points per game, ranking outside the top 100 in that category. It’s also a measurable increase from the 6.3 first-quarter points against they averaged in 2017.

With UCF averaging 11.7 points in the first quarter – nearly identical to last year’s average – it’s clear the visitors are primed for a high-scoring Sportsbook 15 minutes. Roll with the OVER, as the Knights look to end the season with a bang.

My Pick: Make it 24 – With Emphasis

With these teams headed in completely opposite directions, it’s hard to envision the Bulls hanging with their guests in this one. UCF could win by 50 and still not make the College Football Playoff, but that won’t keep the Knights from trying to make a statement in their final game of the season – and that means excelling at both ends of the field.

That said, the Bulls have played UCF tough in recent years, having covered seven of their previous nine meetings – including each of the last three head-to-head encounters. But the Knights appear to be on a whole other level at the moment, while the Bulls have lost each of their last four games by double digits and are scuffling at both ends of the field.

I like the Knights to cover here, putting a fitting capper on yet another sensational regular season.

UCF is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs USF. USF is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games vs its conference.home The total has gone UNDER in five of UCF’s last six games vs its conference.away
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