Aztecs Favored Over Aggies In Mountain West Title Game

San Diego State (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has won four straight games and held opponents to 30 points or less in nine consecutive contests. The Aztecs are 4.5-point favorites to win their third Mountain West championship game and first since 2016. On the other side, Utah State (9-3, 8-4) is looking to win its first-ever conference title.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

San Diego State, ranked No. 19 in the latest AP Top 25 poll behind a sturdy defense, opened as a 4.5-point favorite. The total was set at 50.5 points, a number that seems likely to go down before kickoff. San Diego State has yet to play a conference game this season that totaled more than 50 points and had just one that featured more than 45 points.

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Utah State News & Notes

The Aggies won road games at Washington State and Air Force, while also getting destroyed by Wyoming, and advanced to the title game by beating up on less than stellar competition. Only two of their nine Mountain West opponents ended the year with a record over .500 and the Aggies went just 1-1 against those teams with a -20 point differential.

The key number to note here is 25. When the Aggies scored at least 25 points this season, they were 9-0. When they failed to reach that mark, they went 0-3, losing by double digits each time.

San Diego State News & Notes

San Diego State earned its spot in the AP poll and the College Football Playoff rankings thanks to a defense that rated 10th in the country in surrendering 17.2 points per game.

The key number for the Aztecs is 30. In games this season in which they held opponents under 30 points, they were 10-0. In games when their opponent scored 30 points or more, San Diego State was just 1-1.

How Utah State Will Cover

Utah State needs this game to be played in the upper 20s or even 30s to win. If it is a rock fight and played in the teens, that is going to heavily favor San Diego State. The Aggies were tied for second in big plays in the Mountain West with 38 more than San Diego State.

How San Diego State Will Cover

The Aztecs need to do what they do best: play defense and run the ball. If they can do that, they will control the clock and limit the Aggies chances’ for explosive plays, something that quarterback Logan Bonner and Utah State thrive on.

Computer Pick: San Diego State -6

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