Ranked Blue Devils Host Reeling Hokies

After a devastating loss last weekend that dropped them out of the Top 25, the Virginia Tech Hokies hope to get their season back on track Saturday when they visit the undefeated Duke Blue Devils in an ACC Coastal showdown. Virginia Tech’s proud defense was gashed for more than 600 yards in a 49-35 loss last weekend to Old Dominion, losing starting QB Josh Jackson to injury in the process. Meanwhile, Duke surged to No. 22 in the AP rankings (its first Top 25 appearance in nearly three years) after a 55-13 rout of North Carolina Central, improving to 4-0 on the campaign. However, Duke also has some health concerns at quarterback going into this clash, already without starter Daniel Jones (broken collarbone) and then losing backup Quentin Harris to injury last weekend. The Blue Devils opened as 3.5-point favorites in this one, but the Hokies have won 12 of the 14 all-time meetings.

Virginia Tech vs Duke Game Center

HOW do THE HOKIES RESPOND TO THEIR LOSS?

Betting on good teams following a loss is a proven college football betting strategy, and Virginia Tech has awarded backers in this situation over recent years. The Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when allowing 40-plus points in their previous game, and they’re 9-1 SU in their last 10 outings when coming off a defeat.

However, the Hokies’ one loss during that latter stretch came last year under then second-year head coach Justin Fuente, when Virginia Tech dropped consecutive games to Miami and Georgia Tech. And there have already been some signs of dissension in the Virginia Tech ranks, most notably the team’s dismissal of Trevon Hill after the defensive lineman posted on Twitter that “I never felt so embarrassed in my life smh.”

We’ll also need to keep an eye on the status of QB Josh Jackson, who injured his left ankle in the fourth quarter of the loss to Old Dominion. That game was tied when Jackson made his departure, and the Monarchs outscored Virginia Tech 21-7 the rest of the way. Even if Jackson does play this weekend, you have to think his mobility will be limited.

DUKE ISN’T USED TO BEING THE FAVORITE IN THIS MATCHUP

Although Duke has lost 12 of the 14 all-time meetings dating back to 2004, the Blue Devils have held their own in the point spread department. The Dukies are 7-7 against the number in those 14 meetings with the Hokies, and 6-4 ATS in the last 10.

However, the Blue Devils were underdogs in all but one of those contests – a 2014 home game against Virginia Tech, when Duke lost 45-43 as 3.5-point chalk. In fact, the 2014 and 2015 meetings are the only times in this rivalry that Virginia Tech wasn’t favored by 9.5 points or more.

It’ll be interesting to see how Duke handles the favorite role in this matchup, one the Devils obviously aren’t accustomed to. They’re not even used to being favorites in general, laying points in just three of their last nine outings dating back to last year. It’s certainly worth noting that the Devils have covered their last four games as an underdog, but are just 2-3 ATS in their last five as a favorite.

WITH TWO BANGED-UP QBS, I’M ON THE UNDER

With Jackson’s uncertain status for Virginia Tech and Duke’s Quentin Harris being forced out of last week’s game due to a leg injury, I’m expecting both teams to bring a heavy dose of the running game in this one. The more running plays, the less potential for the clock to stop, and I don’t see the potential for quick strikes out of either attack.

The trends support the UNDER here as well. Duke’s gone below the total in 18 of its last 25 home games, four of the last five meetings between these Coastal Division rivals have gone UNDER, and seven of Virginia Tech’s last nine conference contests have stayed low as well. Throw in the Hokies’ extra emphasis on defense this week after getting lit up by Old Dominion, and it all adds up to a low-scoring ball game this week in Durham.