It’s a huge game in Eugene, Oregon on Saturday night when the top team in the Pac-12 comes to town for a conference swing game. The 17th-ranked Ducks are 3-point dogs against the visiting Huskies, who were the preseason Pac-12 favorite. Washington can put a stranglehold on the Pac-12 with a win on Saturday as the Huskies have just one ranked team on their remaining schedule.
- The total has gone OVER in five of Oregon’s last seven games (avg. combined score: 70.71).
- Oregon is 0-4 ATS in its last four games at home.
- Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
Washington vs Oregon Game Center
Spreads Aren’t the Specialty of Either Team
Washington and Oregon are a combined 3-8 ATS this season, which makes Saturday’s game intriguing from a betting perspective as well as for its impact on the Pac-12 standings. Let’s take a closer look at these teams to see why I think the play is a totals bet on this game.
Herbert Has NFL Teams Excited
Oregon is 12th among FBS teams in points per game at 45.6 and 15th in yards per game with 504. A huge reason for that offensive success is the emergence of quarterback Justin Herbert.
The homegrown junior QB is averaging 10.38 yards per attempt through five games and has had an extra week to game-plan for Washington’s third-ranked defense.
Although the Huskies are allowing just 13.7 points per game, they are surrendering 305 yards per game in the air, an area that Herbert may be able to exploit.
Washington is Playing Close Games
The Huskies are 5-1 but it’s not like they’re blowing teams away. After losing in Week 1 to Auburn, the Huskies have not played another ranked team until Oregon this week.
A two-touchdown win over Utah and seven-point wins over Arizona State and UCLA hardly strike fear into the heart of opponents.
So, while Washington ranks well in defensive categories, the Huskies haven’t had tests from an A1 offense as they’ll see with Herbert and they haven’t been anything close to dominant away from home.
My Pick for This Game
It’s a really tough call as to who wins this game or covers the spread. I think I’m going to sit back and watch these heavyweights go back and forth and bet that they will go OVER 58.5 total points.
Firstly, 55 percent of NCAA games have hit the OVER this year, so you’re better than a coin flip before examining the supporting data – and I like the supporting data here too.
The total has gone OVER in five of Oregon’s last seven games with an average combined score of 70.71, including three of its five games this season.
UCLA, the sixth-worst offensive team in the nation, scored 24 points against the Huskies in Week 6. The Huskies have also played BYU’s 118th-ranked offense, Utah (96th), Auburn (74th), Arizona State (69th) and North Dakota from the FCS.
Oregon has a top-15 offense and will be the biggest test for Washington this year. At the same time, Oregon has allowed 24.4 points per game, including 31 vs Stanford in Week 4, so Huskies QB Jake Browning should be well able to continue his 9.08 yards per attempt average this season.
