Week 11 NCAA Football Odds

Among the many big conference games in NCAA football betting this weekend is Penn State at No. 8 Ohio State. Most books have the Buckeyes favored by 18 points at home, including Sportsbook. The points over/under can be found at 49 at Sportsbook.

Is 18 or more points a bit much for Ohio State to cover, even at home? At 6-3, Penn State is no slouch. The Nittany Lions are playing good football of late. Matt McGloin has given the team a real shot in the arm at quarterback, having thrown seven touchdown passes and one pick, and Joe Paterno has finally handed him the starting reins. McGloin will have a tough test against the third-best defense in the nation.

Since Penn State has struggled to stop the run of late, it may get overwhelmed at home. Still, the Nittany Lions could easily stay within two touchdowns. Picking them at +18 makes sense. With two solid defenses taking the field, this game should go UNDER the 49 points.

With an SEC title game berth on the line, 22nd-ranked South Carolina visits 24th-ranked Florida. The Gators have really picked up steam this week; they opened as a 4.5-point favorite but are now favored by 6.5 points at Sportsbook and Sportsbook. The projected total has grown from an Sportsbook 48.5 to 51.5 at those books.

South Carolina hopes to bounce back after getting trounced 41-20 at home by Arkansas in its last game. Gamecocks starting quarterback Stephen Garcia didn’t get the job done against the Razorbacks last week. He completed just 48.3 per cent of his passes for one touchdown and two interceptions. But should we trust him to return to form? Florida has the country’s 12th-ranked pass defense. The Gators are a pretty good bet to cover the 6.5 points at home and may even keep this game UNDER the total.

Surprising, 17th-ranked Mississippi State hopes to make a statement against No. 11 Alabama in Week 11 as well. The Crimson Tide had their hopes of repeating as national champions destroyed by LSU last week. Books expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder this week and win big, though oddsmakers’ confidence has dwindled slightly.

Sportsbook had Alabama as a 14-point favorite on Sunday but a 12.5-point favorite three days later. Sportsbook shrunk its spread by the same margin over the week. The over/under has grown to 47.5 at those books.

The UNDER makes sense in this matchup; four of the last five meetings between these two teams have fallen under the total. As for the pick, go with Alabama. The Crimson Tide are unbeaten at home this year with only one game decided by fewer than 13 points. If Mississippi State falls behind, its 101st-ranked passing offense may not be equipped to keep up.