The Iowa State Cyclones have made life difficult for their past two ranked opponents, and they’ll look to do the same again this week when they welcome Heisman Trophy dark-horse candidate Will Grier and the high-flying No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers to Ames for a Big 12 clash.
Iowa State is coming off a stunning 48-42 road win over the then-No. 23 Oklahoma State Cowboys, three weeks after giving former No. 5 Oklahoma all it could handle in a 37-27 defeat. Meanwhile, West Virginia continued its early-season roll with a 38-22 home win over the Kansas Jayhawks, and the Mountaineers shouldn’t look past the Cyclones with a bye week on deck. West Virginia is a 6.5-point road favorite in this one.
- Iowa State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
- The UNDER is 10-3 in Iowa State’s last 13 games (avg. combined score of 45.62 points).
- West Virginia is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games on the road in October.
West Virginia vs Iowa State Game Center
MOUNTAINEERS LOOK TO TAKE BETTER CARE OF THE BALL
Last week’s 16-point home win over lowly Kansas wasn’t exactly resume material for a national playoff hopeful like West Virginia. However, the Mountaineers dominated play by a far greater margin than the 38-22 final suggests. West Virginia nearly doubled the Jayhawks in first downs (29-16) and total yards (509-286), and Kansas scored a touchdown on the game’s final play to make the score a bit more respectable.
The Mountaineers offense also uncharacteristically shot itself in the foot, particularly in the red zone. Quarterback Will Grier threw three first-half interceptions inside Kansas’ 20-yard line, snapping West Virginia’s streak of scoring on 15 consecutive red-zone trips. But those picks came against a Kansas defense that has thrived on interceptions, picking off a Big 12-high 11 passes through six weeks.
Iowa State has struggled to generate turnovers, forcing just five (including only two interceptions) so far this season. If the Cyclones can’t force the Mountaineers to turn the ball over, it could be a long day against a West Virginia offense that ranks fourth in the nation in passing yards.
WILL CYCLONES TURN TO THIRD-STRING QB AGAIN?
Maybe the Iowa State offense’s biggest issue this year was that it was simply using the wrong quarterback. The Cyclones came into last week’s game at Oklahoma State with the worst offense in the Big 12, then proceeded to rack up 48 points and 465 yards with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy at the helm. The freshman pivot entered the game on the second series and proceeded to go 18-for-23 for 318 yards and four touchdowns. Purdy was also a huge threat on the ground, leading the Cyclones with 84 yards on 19 carries, including a 29-yard touchdown run.
If Purdy gets the start again, it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against an opponent that has prepared for him. Oklahoma State had game-planned to stop pro-style quarterback Zeb Noland, and suddenly facing a quarterback with the elusiveness of Purdy was a huge curveball that the Cowboys defense couldn’t handle. The Mountaineers will have the luxury of watching game film (Purdy had played just one series in his career before last week).
I’M TAKING THE HOME DOG
There’s something about elite competition that seems to consistently bring out the best of the Cyclones. Last year, they knocked off the eventual national semifinalist Sooners and a solid TCU team, and we saw what they did last week to Oklahoma State in Stillwater. They’re also on a 13-5-2 run against the spread in their last 20 as an underdog, and 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 as a home pup.
West Virginia hasn’t really been tested so far this year, Sportsbook the season with games against Tennessee, Youngstown State, Kent State, Texas Tech and Kansas. Things won’t be as easy this week in Ames, and the Mountaineers’ 82nd-ranked run game can’t be trusted to run out the clock to protect a late lead. Coming off last week’s upset, Iowa State comes in with plenty of confidence, and I expect the Cyclones to give the Mountaineers a run for their money in this spot.
