
This offseason there was a media debate going as to which conference is tops in college football – the ACC or the SEC?
The only real answer I care about is which one is best in betting terms so I asked our data team to dig into the betting records for non-conference play. Turns out it’s the ACC in recent seasons and it’s not really all that close.
The ACC covered the spread at a 54.4 percent rate over the past five years vs non-league foes and a 53.3 percent rate over the last 10 years. The next best conference over the past five years was the MAC (Mid-American) at 52.6 percent and the Big 12 was actually better over the past 10 years at 55.3 percent.
I feel the more recent numbers are the more relevant ones because you still have some of the same core teams together from the past five years. A lot can change — and has changed — in college football when we go back as far as 10 years but I put the numbers in there for your reference anyway.
The most surprising numbers for me were with the SEC, which is the worst bet over the last five years with a 46 percent cover rate in non-con play. It’s surprising because the SEC is the second-best straight up with a winning rate of 84.1 percent. Only the Pac-12 is better at 85.1 percent.
This is clear evidence that SEC lines tend to be inflated when it comes to non-conference games and it’s something you may want to keep in mind heading into the season. I also think we’ll see less value overall in the ACC this non-conference season coming off a national championship year.
Below is a more complete list of numbers by conference:
Conference | L5 years SU | L5 years ATS | L10 years SU | L10 years ATS |
---|---|---|---|---|
ACC | 185-71 | 135-112-8 | 343-145 | 229-201-10 |
SEC | 212-40 | 115-135 | 393-86 | 218-220-2 |
Big 12 | 108-32 | 71-69 | 277-75 | 176-142-2 |
Big Ten | 182-58 | 118-118-4 | 345-111 | 204-215-4 |
Pac-12 | 137-24 | 87-81-3 | 235-89 | 158-148-3 |
MAC | 107-145 | 133-118-1 | 195-316 | 246-230-2 |
Sun Belt | 101-129 | 117-109-4 | 147-270 | 199-223-5 |
Mountain West | 107-125 | 102-111-6 | 208-201 | 178-197-9 |
AAC | 117-95 | 104-104-4 | 254-155 | 186-186-6 |
Independent | 108-110 | 102-114-2 | 195-200 | 177-202-7 |
Conference USA | 96-163 | 121-132-5 | 191-307 | 217-243-7 |
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