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Another Season of Mediocrity Looms in Buffalo

If you would have said the Buffalo Bills would have ended the 2015 season with an exciting offense and a defense that was mediocre at best, I probably would have laughed in your face. But that’s exactly what happened.

The Bills’ offense finished first in the NFL in rushing thanks to a monumental effort from Tyrod Taylor — which netted him a substantial contract this offseason — and LeSean McCoy. However, the defense struggled which prompted coach Rex Ryan to bring his brother Rob to fix the D — despite Rob being at the helm of some of the worst defenses in history during his time with the New Orleans Saints.

Here’s a look at the Bills’ odds for 2016:

Super Bowl +6600

The Bills have a similar template as a recent Super Bowl champion to model their team after if they want to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season. The 2014 Seattle Seahawks actually have some similarities to the make-up of the 2016 Bills. Both have run games that rank in the top five despite passing attacks that are near the bottom of the NFL while sporting an opportunistic defense.

Does this mean that Bills are destined to win the Super Bowl? Good god no. Just making the playoffs will likely be an unexpected feat for Buffalo.

AFC Championship +2800

Only the San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns have worse odds to win the AFC Championship this upcoming season. Though Bills’ fans can take solace in the fact the Jets and Dolphins sport the same odds.

No team has ever won the AFC Championship without at least double-digit wins in the regular season — aside from the 1982 Miami Dolphins who only played nine regular season games due to strike. Winning at least 10 games won’t be easy, as the Bills have the 10th hardest strength of schedule in 2016.

AFC East +500

The road to the AFC East crown goes through Foxborough, which could spell doom for the Bills. Buffalo has not taken both games against the Patriots in one season since 1999 and have gone 0-2 on 12 occasions since then. In the past 17 years, the Bills have only finished second in the AFC East twice.

OVER/UNDER Win Total – 8.0

A mediocre win total for a — in all likelihood— mediocre team. As much as people want to make Rex Ryan sound like a good coach, he has not led a team to a record better than 8-8 since 2010. That is five consecutive seasons of .500 or worse.

If the Bills want to eclipse eight wins this season, they will need to actually win games on the road. Buffalo has not had a winning road record since the 1999 season — with the Bills posting a winning percentage of 32.5 percent in that time. 

Tyrod Taylor to Win MVP +6600

Is the idea of Tyrod Taylor winning the MVP absurd? Yeah. But crazier things have happened. If the Bills are going to shock the world and become a legit contender this season then Taylor will need to be the centerpiece of their offense. Taylor accounted for 62.3 percent of the Bills’ offense and 57.1 percent of the team’s offensive touchdowns in 2015. Basically, he will need to carry the team offensively with both his arm and his legs to a playoff berth in order to be in consideration for the MVP.

2016 Buffalo Bills Futures Odds
Super Bowl+6600
AFC Championship+2800
AFC East+500
Win Totals 8.0

Odds as of August 23 at Bovada