We've got our Super Bowl 59 matchup between Kansas City and Philadelphia, with the Chiefs as -115 favorites.
My buddy Nick Holz broke down why Philly will win Super Bowl 59, if you want to be convinced of that. The Eagles are a great team with solid positional coaching, but I've got the three main reasons the Chiefs will win Super Bowl 59:
1. Patrick Mahomes
How can we not start with this guy? Mahomes may not be coming off an MVP-level season, but all this guy does is win games. We saw it again this season, with Mahomes leading KC to 12 one-score victories. And we've seen it his entire career in the playoffs, with Mahomes winning nine-straight playoff games ahead of Super Bowl 59.
With Mahomes heading to his 5th Super Bowl, let’s look at some of his accolades:
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) January 27, 2025
-7 Seasons Starting.
-7 AFC Championships.
-5 Super Bowl Visits.
-🏆🏆🏆
-3x Super Bowl MVP.
-2x NFL MVP.
7 years of DOMINANCE. pic.twitter.com/8L0DB9SCQr
I don't think Mahomes' success is about his high-upside, four-touchdown days, as much as it's his ability to entirely prevent mistakes. The Chiefs were 15-0 this year in games Mahomes doesn't throw more than one interception. They're 17-1 all-time in the playoffs when Mahomes is UNDER 1.5 interceptions, too.
The Eagles did force 13 INT in 17 regular season games this year. But, if Mahomes can navigate the secondary and prevent multiple turnovers, he'll be hoisting his fourth Super Bowl trophy and likely another Super Bowl MVP.
2. Kansas City's Rushing Defense
Stopping Saquon Barkley will be crucial for a Chiefs' Super Bowl 59 victory. In three Philly playoff games, so far, Barkley has 442 rushing yards, 35 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns.
But, if there's a defense that can stop Saquon it's these Chiefs. Steve Spagnuolo's D was the third-best rushing defense in football this season, holding opponent RBs to just 70.4 rushing yards per game. They were one of five teams not to allow a receiving touchdown to a RB all year, too.
Saquon faced two other top-five rushing defenses (Buccaneers and Ravens) this year, and posted two of his worst games of the season, combining for just 191 rushing yards and one touchdown in those games. The Eagles went 1-1 and averaged just 20.5 points per game against top-five rushing defenses this year.
I still expect Barkley to break off some big runs, but if Kansas City's defense can hold Barkley to below 100 rushing yards and to just one touchdown, they control this Super Bowl.
3. Andy Reid's Play Calling
Since joining the Chiefs in 2013, Reid has led eight top-10 offenses by scoring. But, when the game matters most he elevates his attacks even further. In the last four years, the Chiefs have averaged more points per game in the playoffs (despite playing better opponents) than the regular season:
- 2024: 22.6 Regular Season PPG -> 27.5 Playoff PPG
- 2023: 21.8 -> 23.75
- 2022: 29.17 -> 29.3
- 2021: 28.2 -> 29.3
In four Super Bowls, Reid’s Chiefs have scored at least 25 points three times.
Reid just digs deep into his playbook in these big spots, confusing opponents and drawing up entirely new plays that always seem to work. For example, the Chiefs basically never schemed up an outside QB run all season ahead of the AFC Championship game, and Reid busted it out a few times against the Bills — including two Mahomes rushing TDs. He'll surely have a few more of those fresh plays for Super Bowl 59.
MAHOMES TAKES IT IN HIMSELF 😤
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 27, 2025
His first postseason rushing TD since 2022
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/CPD8JI37bF
If Kansas City's offense looked dull and sluggish this regular season, it was because Andy Reid was saving all the good plays for games like this.