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7 Things You Need To Know About Betting Bad-Weather NFL Games

Perhaps you’ve noticed but many NFL teams that play in cold climates don’t have a roof over their heads. 

Gazillions of dollars, yes. And still … no roof.

That’s why it’s extra important to handicap the elements when wintry weather blows in. So what should we be looking for when the weather gets rough? 

I got our OddsShark data team to dig up some numbers for us for rocky weather games and here are seven important things we can take from it. (Note: Our weather data goes back to the 2013-14 season, so this is from the last 2 ½ NFL campaigns.) 

1. Home teams are a good bet when it’s cold 

The home team is 53-37 SU (straight up) and 47-40-1 ATS (against the spread) when the temperature dips to 40 degrees Fahrenheit or lower. That’s a 54 percent winning rate and the numbers get even hotter when it gets, er, colder. 

The home side is 29-11 SU and 21-17-2 ATS (55.3 percent) when the thermometer drops to 32 degrees or lower. That suggests they are a good bet against the spread and if you like parlays, they’ve proven to be a great moneyline addition to your ticket. 

2. Games go UNDER when it’s cold

The numbers confirm an old adage in sports betting: Games tend to be lower-scoring when the players are huddling by the heaters on the sidelines.  

When the temperature is lower than 40 degrees, the UNDER cashes at 53.4 percent (41-47-2 OVER/UNDER) and it comes through at 57.5 percent when it’s 32 degrees or colder (17-23 O/U). 

3. Dogs like wet weather 

Any dog owner can tell you this but the same holds true in football. Underdogs are 82-69-7 ATS (54.3 percent) when it has rained and 12-8 ATS (60 percent) when it has snowed since 2013-14.   

Road teams are even better in the rain at 86-65-7 ATS (57 percent) so it appears that rain has a tendency to level the playing field a little. Makes sense. 

4. Rain does not equal UNDER

This one busts a popular betting myth that you should automatically be thinking UNDER when it rains. The OVER/UNDER is actually 76-78-4 when it rains – almost a perfect 50-50. 

Damn, oddsmakers are frustratingly good.  

5. Dogs like it windy

If you’ve ever seen a smiling dog sticking its head out the window of a moving vehicle, you are familiar with this angle. Underdogs are 37-26 ATS (58.7 percent) when the wind blows at 15 mph or greater. 

The best passing teams in the NFL are often favored, so this one seems logical. The passing game gets a lot trickier in windy conditions. 

Totals balance out in the wind, however. The O/U is 34-31-2 since the 2013-14 NFL season on blustery days. 

6.  The Steelers are the best bet in freezing weather

Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU and a perfect 5-0-1 ATS when it’s 32 degrees or colder over the past three seasons. The Steelers are also 3-0 SU and ATS when it snows, so this is definitely a team to keep your eye on when it gets nasty outside. 

The Green Bay Packers are your best moneyline bet when it’s freezing or worse at 8-1 SU and they are a profitable 6-3 ATS in those games. 

7. Denver is your worst bet in the cold 

I found this one a little surprising. The Broncos are 3-7-1 ATS at 32 degrees or colder. They’re 8-3 SU, though, so they might make for a good teaser add-on when you see the temperature dip. 

Hope these numbers help you out over the final weeks of the NFL season and into the playoffs. 

Follow me on Twitter @JonnyOddsShark