The Indianapolis Colts are 1.5-point underdogs to the Denver Broncos Sunday as both teams open their preseason and kickoff their 2024 campaign. Oddsmakers have set the over/under at 37.5 for this game. Last year the Broncos lost their first two preseason games by 1 point each and then blew out the Rams 41-0 in their finale. The Colts lost their preseason opener 23-19 to the Bills last season and then won their last two exhibition games by double digits. Neither head coach was shy about playing his starters last year.
If you’re familiar with my content, you know I love betting 6-point teasers in the NFL and I especially love them during the preseason when totals are much lower than the regular season. Games with lower totals have less variance and theoretically less likely to be blowouts. Read below to see how I’m teasing this game, and remember to always shop around for teasers because each sportsbook charges a different price.
Broncos vs. Colts Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | -1.5 (+100) | -115 | Over 37.5 (-110) |
| Indianapolis Colts | +1.5 (-120) | -105 | Under 37.5 (-110) |
Broncos Vs Colts Picks – Preseason Week 1
This game will be nationally televised (NFL Network) at 1 p.m. Sunday and that could work in favor of the Colts who are located in the eastern time zone, while Denver’s players have been practicing in the Mountain time zone where it will be 11 a.m. at kickoff.
Like last season, Sean Payton plans to play most of his starters in this game telling DenverBroncos.com, “If they’re healthy, we’ll play everyone.” The problem is, the Broncos roster isn’t very good so a lot of their starters would be backups on most NFL rosters. All eyes will be on rookie QB Bo Nix in this one, while Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci are also expected to get snaps. That duo has shown to be competent in the preseason. For instance, last year they combined for 353 yards and 2 TD in one game.
Last Sunday, Colts coach Shane Steichen said he’d decide in the middle of the week if he’d play his starters or not. This article is being published Wednesday evening and we still don’t have clarity, but it’s worth noting that Steichen did utilize starters in last year’s preseason opener and this game is priced as if that’s the case again. Whether Colts QB Anthony Richardson gets snaps or not, I’m expecting 2021 6th-round pick Sam Ehlinger to get the bulk of the snaps in this one because the team doesn’t need to develop No. 2 QB Joe Flacco. Ehlinger has quietly put together an impressive preseason highlight reel. In 2022, Ehlinger rushed for a 45-yard touchdown and had back-to-back-games where he combined to go 19-for-22 with 196 yards and four touchdowns. Last season, Ehlinger finished the preseason 23-for-31 for 282 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
The Colts depth chart is murky at running back and I think that could cause some added motivation for Colts runners in this one. No. 2 running back Trey Sermon has had a strong training camp, but he’s had a disappointing NFL career so he has a lot to prove. Behind him, 2nd-year backs Tyler Goodson and Evan Hull could be competing with each other for a job.
In the preseason, +1.5 lines can be extra valuable because neither coach wants overtime so a 4th quarter TD while down 7 points will often invoke a 2-point conversion which means more games are decided by exactly one point. With that in mind, I’m taking the +1.5 point spread instead of the moneyline, but shop around and keep an eye on the spread which could move before kickoff.
Broncos vs Colts Preseason Week 1 pick: 2T, 6P teaser: Colts +7.5, Over 31.5 (-120)
Broncos vs Colts Betting Trends
- The Colts have scored 19+ points in their last seven preseason games
- Colts QB Sam Ehlinger has notched 6 TD (4 passing, 2 rushing) in his last six preseason games
- Broncos QB Ben DiNucci is 21-for-31 for 186 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT in 3 preseason games last year
