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How will Aaron Rodgers fare in his return to action in Week 15?

The Green Bay Packers’ playoff hopes are on life-support but their savior Aaron “Jesus Christ” Rodgers is back to try to turn water into wine in Week 15 versus the Carolina Panthers. Rodgers has been in this situation before in 2013 and sportsbooks are offering props on how he’ll perform after missing eight games. Here are my favorite prop bets:

Total Pass Completions -  O/U 23.5

PICK – OVER (-120)

Since this is a must-win game for Green Bay, I fully expect the Packers quarterback to empty the clip vs the Panthers. On Bovada, it’s offering the OVER at -120 and I think this is a lock. Rodgers exceeded 23 completions in 10 of his 16 games last season and three of his five games this season (excluding the Vikings game in Week 6). When you do a deep dive on the Panthers pass defense, you realize they do employ a cover-2 defense that is designed to allow the short pass. Carolina has allowed opposing passers to average 21.2 completed passes per game (ranked 17th) this season and 23.7 (ranked 25th) in its last three. Sign me up!

Total Interceptions – O/U 0.5

PICK – OVER (-120)

Although Rodgers is a great quarterback, he isn’t impervious to turnovers. In six games this season, he threw three interceptions (one in three straight games) and has averaged just under eight interceptions per year since becoming a starter in 2008. But why I’m cautious to expect an impeccable game from Rodgers is the time away. When he got hurt in 2013 and returned vs the Bears in Week 17, he threw two interceptions in a must-win game. The Panthers may have only secured seven interceptions this season but all it takes is a tipped pass to a receiver to secure this payout.

Total Touchdown Passes – O/U 2

PICK – UNDER (+110)

This is one that has decent value and I think the UNDER will come through at +110. Rodgers may have had eight games of three touchdown passes or more last season and in three of five games this season but you can’t forget the elephant in the room. He did just miss eight games with an injury to his right clavicle and may be out of sync with his receivers in the first week back. And finally, the main fact to support the UNDER is the Panthers have only allowed a quarterback to throw for three or more touchdowns in three of their 13 games this season. Unless Rodgers decides to harness his divine powers, in which case the whole league should be very nervous for the Packers to “run the table.”

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