After losing to the Packers 34-20, the Atlanta Falcons guaranteed themselves a losing record for the first time since 2014. The Dirty Birds have averaged just 17.6 points per game during their current five-game losing streak and are 4-9 overall and 3-10 against the spread this season.
It’s hard to believe the same Arizona Cardinals team that beat the Packers in Green Bay in Week 13 managed just three points in a home game against the Lions. Arizona’s 17-3 loss dropped it to 3-10 overall and 6-6-1 against the spread. The Cards have averaged just 14.1 points per game over the past eight contests.
The Falcons opened as 7.5-point favorites before the line jumped to -9 Sunday night. Arizona’s moneyline opened at +335 and the total is 44 because heaven forbid the Cardinals score more than 10 points this Sunday.
Atlanta has failed to cover in five consecutive games, while Arizona 1-3 ATS in its last four games. It’s the first time the Falcons have been favored by 9 or more points since November 2017 and they are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games when favored by 9 or more.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Falcons’ last five games (avg. combined score: 45.8).
- The Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games (avg. losing margin: 10.6).
- The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.
Cardinals vs Falcons Game Center
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 14
Cardinals – After being held to 3.3 yards per carry by the Lions, running back David Johnson has now averaged 3.7 or fewer yards per carry in 10 of the Cardinals’ 13 games this season. With Josh Rosen completing just 54.7 percent of his passes over the past month, Arizona must lean on its defense to create opportunities for the offense. Heck, rookie Trent Sheffield was the team’s leading receiver against the Lions with seven receptions for 77 yards.
Arizona’s rush defense remains one of the league’s worst, allowing 133 ground yards per game over the past three weeks.
Falcons – The Cardinals’ struggles at stopping the rush are noteworthy because after recent issues, Atlanta rushed 24 times for 107 yards or 4.5 yards per rush against the Packers, which is well above its three-week average of 55.7 rush yards per game.
Despite the downward trend, Julio Jones remains active and involved in the offense as he hauled in eight receptions for 106 yards and two touchdowns. After being held without a touchdown the first seven weeks of this season, he’s scored five over his past five games.
With two more offensive turnovers at Green Bay, Atlanta’s turnover margin has dropped to minus-4.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: OFFENSIVE OFFENSE
No team has averaged fewer than 240 total yards per game for a season since 2007. With three games to go, the Cardinals are averaging less than 243 total yards per contest.
Since 1999, seven teams have finished a season averaging fewer than 243 total yards per game and those squads were 28-84 straight up, but surprisingly 50-60-2 against the spread.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: CRACK A SIX-PACK
Atlanta has failed to cover in five consecutive games. Since 2011, teams that have done the same are 10-25 straight up and 16-19 against the spread in their next (sixth) game.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA FORECAST
Inside.
Atlanta’s Matt Bryant missed a field goal and extra point at Green Bay. He’s now 15 of 16 on field goals and 22 of 24 on extra-point tries. Arizona placed Phil Dawson on injured reserve a few weeks ago and picked up former Cleveland Browns (shaky) kicker Zane Gonzalez. After missing a 54-yarder against the Lions, he’s 3-for-4 on field goals and 2-for-2 on extra points in two games with the Cardinals.
MY LEAN
Arizona picked up its “something to build on” win at Green Bay two weeks ago, while the Falcons need their own version as they look to finish the 2018 season on a positive note. With games at Carolina and at Tampa Bay the final two weeks, this is Atlanta’s best shot at a win. I could very easily see this as a 24/27-10 win for the Falcons. The UNDER has hit in back-to-back Cardinals games and four of the past five games involving the Falcons. I lean Falcons win, cover and UNDER as the Cardinals wave the white flag on 2018.
