Maybe you heard about this — the Falcons blew a 28-3 late third-quarter lead in the Super Bowl vs the Patriots last season. This will go down as one of the most embarrassing losses in the history of sports. They were ridiculed about it throughout the offseason and the schedule makers were kind enough (or cruel enough, depending on your outlook) to give them a crack at the Patriots in a prime-time game on Sunday night.
Both of these teams have underachieved so far this season. While the root of the Patriots’ problems is clearly their defense, the Falcons have been a bit tricky to figure out and they could very well be worse than their 3-2 record indicates. They had a little bit of luck in their last-minute wins vs the Bears and Lions and as evidenced by scoring just 17 points in each of their last two games, they’re clearly missing Kyle Shanahan as the brains behind their offense.
A date with the Patriots could be the cure for what ails Matt Ryan and company as the Patriots defense has been torched for a league-worst 324.8 passing yards per game. New England is also tied for an NFL-worst 14 passing touchdowns allowed, so if the Falcons offense can’t snap out of it on Sunday night, we likely won’t see them get back to their high-flying ways from last season.
Bettors shouldn’t be shocked to see this game has the highest total of the week, hovering in the 55-point range. The Patriots have gone OVER in all three of their home games this season, while the Falcons have gone OVER in 19 of their last 25 games, with those games having an average combined score of 56.6. Bettors will also be interested to know that since the beginning of last season, the teams have combined to play in games with a combined score that surpassed 55 points 20 times.
We’ll wrap things with a historic trend: Prior to this game, there have been five regular-season Super Bowl rematches since 1984. The Super Bowl Sportsbook went 4-1 SU and ATS in the rematches.
Sportsbook Odds & Computer Pick
Bettors who were going with the New England Patriots in this one found them listed as 3.5-point favorites on the betting line at Sportsbook. Fans betting on totals have seen that number set earlier in the week at 53.5 for Sunday.
Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas picked a 29-24 win for the Patriots. Injuries during the week may cause the formula to be re-run, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.
Team Betting Records & Power Rankings
This season the New England Patriots are 4-2 overall and 2-4 against the spread, while the Falcons are 3-2 and 2-3 ATS. As for the totals, New England is 4-2 on the OU, and Atlanta is 2-3. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Atlanta injuries news.
It's a betting matchup between the No. 3-rated New England Patriots and the No. 2-ranked Atlanta Falcons, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark.
The game also pits New England's No. 5-ranked offense, averaging 28.67 PPG, against a Falcons defense that ranks No. 15 this week at 21.8 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 309.83 yards per game, more than the Falcons secondary allows through the air, 210.4 YPG per game.
In comparing defenses, the Atlanta Falcons own the league's No. 11-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 98 yards per game when on the road. New England, on the other hand, rates No. 22 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Recent Outings Betting Recap
The Falcons suffered a Week 6 loss against Miami in their last game, falling 20-17 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Tom Brady threw a pair of TD passes in New England's last match, defeating New York 24-17 in Week 6 action on Sunday.
Next Betting Matchups
Atlanta at New York, Sunday, October 29
New England home to Los Angeles, Sunday, October 29