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Favored Team Has Cleaned up in Series Between Dirty Birds and Bucs

Matt Ryan and the Dirty Birds will be out for revenge against the Buccaneers on Thursday after they dropped the first game of the season against their divisional rivals. The 24 points Atlanta put up against Tampa Bay in that Week 1 game are the second fewest the Falcons have scored in a game all season.

  • The favored team is 19-3 in its last 22 games in this matchup.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games at home against teams with winning records.
  • The Falcons are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.0 or less.

Atlanta has continued to light up every defense it plays and possesses the second most efficient offense in the league. The Falcons have played two top-tier defensive squads this year – Green Bay and Seattle – and were able to make them look average. The Bucs’ middle-of-the-road run and pass D may not have an answer for Matty Ice, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman on Thursday night.

With a win at home, Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers could even their record at 4-4. The issue with their bid to pull to .500 is that they have won just one of their last 10 home games when they’ve gone in as the underdogs and their margin of loss in those nine failures is over 13 points. Without a healthy running back, the Bucs will become one-dimensional and, as we’ve seen, Winston (22nd in QB efficiency) is not good when he’s forcing the football down the field.

I will be targeting the OVER in this game with no signs of the Falcons offense slowing down and with seven of the Bucs’ last 10 games and seven of the Falcons’ last eight games eclipsing their set total.

The trends in this one are a little conflicting as the Falcons have been a horrible spread bet as small favorites and as favorites on the road, but the favored team has the massive lead in this series and Atlanta has covered in five straight road games. These factors would suggest the Falcons in a squeaker but as we know, trends can change.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Atlanta Falcons betting odds line opened as 1-point underdogs in this one at most sportsbooks tracked here at Odds Shark (including BetOnline), while the total was hovering around 49.5 at most shops.

Odds Shark computer prediction formulas pick a 30-23 win for the Falcons on Thursday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit at 3-4 (3-4 ATS) on the season; in comparison, the Atlanta Falcons are currently 5-3 (5-3 ATS). Looking to bet on the totals? Tampa Bay is 4-3 OU, and Atlanta is 7-1 OU. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Tampa Bay vs Atlanta injuries news.

According to the Power Rankings here at Odds Shark it's the No. 29-rated Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the No. 6-rated Atlanta Falcons in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Tampa Bay's No. 19-ranked offense, averaging 21.71 PPG, against a Falcons defense that ranks No. 29 this week at 28.88 PPG. The Buccaneers aerial game is averaging 238.29 yards per game, less than the Falcons secondary allows through the air, 285.38 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Atlanta Falcons own the league's No. 15-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 106.5 yards per game when on the road. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, rates No. 27 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Matt Ryan dusted the Packers secondary for 3 TDs last time out as the Falcons defeated Green Bay 33-32 at Georgia Dome.

The Buccaneers's last action saw them get a 2-TD performance from Jameis Winston, but they were handed a 30-24 loss by Oakland at Raymond James Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games
  • Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
  • Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
  • Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Atlanta at Philadelphia, Sunday, November 13th
Tampa Bay home to Chicago, Sunday, November 13th