The Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed by extending their winning streak to 10 games Sunday when they host the Atlanta Falcons (4-10) as double-digit favorites at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. While the Chiefs have won nine in a row, they have failed to cover the spread in six straight, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.
- Date/Time: December 27, 1 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
- TV Coverage: Fox
- Sportsbook Odds: Chiefs -11.5 | O/U 53.5 (Line History)
- Falcons vs Chiefs Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
Surprisingly, early money has come in on the underdog Falcons, with their backers possibly thinking this is too big a number to cover for a team on a 0-5-1 run against the spread. During its winning streak, Kansas City has closed as a double-digit favorite three times, going 1-2 ATS in those games. On the other side, Atlanta is in a three-game skid, losing by a total of 12 points. The Falcons have closed as underdogs of more than 5 points only once this season and beat the number (+6) last week in a 31-27 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, blowing another double-digit halftime lead to Tom Brady.
Atlanta News & Notes
It is hard to look on the bright side for this Atlanta team when the end result was another demoralizing loss, the fourth in five games. But the Falcons did look fairly good offensively in building their big lead until the wheels came off yet again.
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan had his best passing performance of the season without wide receiver Julio Jones, throwing for 356 yards and three touchdowns in the setback. His only two better games statistically this year came with Jones on the field, although Calvin Ridley picked up the slack vs Tampa Bay with 10 catches for 163 yards and one touchdown.
Ridley has been great in 2020 while Jones has battled a hamstring injury. If both receivers can play together again here, it might make the Falcons a solid underdog play.
Kansas City News & Notes
For a team that has struggled to beat the number lately, that is about the lone criticism anyone can come up with. The defending Super Bowl champions just wrapped up the road portion of their schedule at a perfect 8-0 straight up, the only team in the NFL to accomplish that feat.
Granted, the Chiefs went 3-4-1 ATS away from home this season, and they have not covered the spread in their last two games at Arrowhead Stadium either after closing as favorites of 10 points or more against the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers.
Those last two home games were decided by a combined six points too, and you have to go back to Week 8 vs the then-winless New York Jets to find the last time they beat a team by more than six points. That said, NFL MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes is leading a nearly unstoppable offense right now, one that remains hard to bet against.
Betting Pick: OVER 53.5
Kansas City has seen each of its last two games – and four of six – hit 60 points or more, and that trend will continue vs Atlanta. The Falcons are much weaker defensively than the Saints and Buccaneers, two teams that surrendered an average of 29.5 points to the Chiefs. In fact, Kansas City is averaging nearly 31 points against three NFC South opponents this year, which is right in line with the team’s scoring average overall in 2020. The Chiefs are due to hit 40 and will in this spot while their defense – and their opponent’s – continues to struggle in another high-scoring affair.
- The Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The OVER is 5-0 in the past 5 meetings.
- The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
