The 7-5 Baltimore Ravens put their three-game winning streak on the line and look to hand the 10-2 Kansas City Chiefs their first home loss of the season when the two meet Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore has been on a win-one, lose-one streak through its six road games this year, while Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 at home and is a 7-point favorite this week with the total Sportsbook at 53 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Chiefs’ last 10 games at home (avg. combined score: 45.2).
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Ravens’ last 10 games (avg. combined score: 40.4).
- Kansas City has the best home average scoring margin in the NFL (16.2).
Baltimore vs Kansas City Game Center
High-scoring Chiefs are unkind hosts
Kansas City sits atop the AFC standings with an impressive 10-2 record, including a perfect 5-0 mark at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have been away from home for the past two weeks and their last home game saw them beat Arizona 26-13. They will have a different look for their home fans this time around as running back Kareem Hunt was waived from the team after a video was released of him being involved in a domestic violence incident. Former starting back Spencer Ware has found himself leading the carries once again and he rushed for 47 yards on 14 carries in his first game as the feature back last week vs Oakland – the second-fewest rushing yards by a Chiefs lead back in a game this season.
However, the offense is led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is second in the NFL in passing yards at 3,923 with a league-leading 41 touchdowns (nine more than second-place Andrew Luck) and has the best total quarterback rating of 84.3. Mahomes averages 12.3 yards per pass completion, which is second-best in the league, but Baltimore allows the sixth-fewest yards per completion on the road at 9.8. Overall, Kansas City averages the fourth-most home points in the league at 33.8, while allowing the fourth-fewest home points at 17.6, leading the NFL with a +16.2 point differential at Arrowhead Stadium.
Smothering Ravens defense is the key to the victory
Baltimore has been dealing with some serious injuries but there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. Quarterback Joe Flacco has missed each of the last three games as he is dealing with a hip injury, but he may be back under center on Sunday. However, the Ravens lost each of their last three games with Flacco at the helm and are a perfect 3-0 with first-round pick Lamar Jackson being the signal-caller – can we say QB controversy? Additionally, starting running back Alex Collins was hurt and placed on the IR two weeks ago, but again the Ravens got bailed out by the emergence of Gus Edwards, who has rushed for an average of 105 yards in the three games that he has been leading the backfield.
Baltimore also got a positive note as RB Kenneth Dixon returned to the field for the first time since Week 1, rushing eight times for 37 yards last week vs Atlanta. Enough talk about the offense, though, as it is the defense that has been carrying the torch for the Ravens, especially on the road where they are giving up just 18.7 points per game, the fewest in the NFL. In addition, Baltimore is surrendering the fewest first downs on the road at 17.2 and leads the league in time of possession, killing the clock by using its run game, which is now a two-pronged attack with two bruising backs in Edwards and Dixon. The defense does lack big-play ability, though, averaging just 0.8 takeaways per game, which is the second-fewest in the NFL.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
Both teams have had the UNDER trending recently and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 53 points. Kansas City has gone UNDER in four of its five home games this year, including its last four in a row with an average combined score of 51.4, while this is the highest total of any Baltimore road game this season, with four of those six matches going UNDER 53 points. Additionally, the Chiefs have big-play ability that actually limits their average time of possession at home, which ranks smack dab in the middle of the league in 16th at 30:23, and the Ravens allow their opponent’s offense on the field for just 27:19 on the road, which is the lowest in the league. Lastly, Mahomes carves teams up by stretching the field and averaging 12.3 yards per completion at Arrowhead, which is the second-highest in the league, but Baltimore gives up the sixth-fewest yards per completion in away games. I think the UNDER is the bet to make.
My take on Baltimore vs Kansas City
I like the UNDER 53 points between Baltimore and Kansas City this week. Despite the high-octane offense that the Chiefs possess, they are UNDER machines at home, going UNDER in four of their five games at Arrowhead this year. Dating back to last year, they have gone UNDER in nine of their last 10 with an average combined score of 45.2. Meanwhile, in typical Baltimore fashion, the defense has been paving the way and the Ravens have gone UNDER in seven of their last 10 games overall with an average combined score of 40.4. Lastly, the Ravens do a good job chewing up the clock when they are on offense and I expect them to really try to amplify that this week against a Chiefs team that has big-play ability and this will result in a lower-scoring game.
