Losers of three of four ahead of their Week 10 bye, the Baltimore Ravens have bounced back in a big way since the break in the form of back-to-back wins to launch themselves firmly into the race for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. Baltimore will look to make it three victories in a row in Week 13 when it travels to Atlanta to battle the Falcons. Sportsbooks opened the Ravens as slight 1-point road favorites with a total of 49.
- The Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs the Falcons.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Ravens’ last nine games vs the Falcons (avg. combined score: 34.56).
- The Ravens are 1-7 SU in their last eight games after consecutive wins.
Jackson has given the Ravens a different element at QB
Without longtime starting quarterback Joe Flacco in the huddle, the Ravens haven’t missed a beat thanks to the impact of rookie signal-caller Lamar Jackson. Jackson has set a new NFL record for most rushing yards for a quarterback in his first two starts with 190. Jackson is slated to get his third straight start for the Ravens with Flacco still banged up, and if he can guide the club to another victory, don’t be surprised if he gains the starting job going forward.
The Ravens have straight-up dominated the Falcons when it comes to covering the spread in recent meetings, as Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in its past nine matchups with Atlanta. The Ravens are also 1-7 SU in their past eight when coming off consecutive wins and 0-6 SU in their previous six road games after playing consecutive contests at home.
It’s been a season of frustration in Georgia
The Falcons’ playoff hopes have all but vanished at 4-7, and a 31-17 loss to the division rival New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving Day was yet another disappointing performance in a season full of them for Atlanta. Quarterback Matt Ryan went 35-for-47 for 377 passing yards and two touchdowns with an interception, but was sacked six times for a combined loss of 37 yards. Atlanta ranks seventh in the league in giveaways with 1.1 per game, outnumbering their takeaways per game (0.9).
When the Falcons and Ravens get together, low-scoring affairs tend to follow. In the past nine meetings between the clubs, the UNDER is 8-1, with an average combined score of 34.6. The Falcons are 3-7 SU in their previous 10 matchups with the Ravens.
My pick: take the UNDER
The Falcons have historically been a solid OVER wager due to their high-octane offense and relatively weak defense, but they’ve been in the middle of the pack this season at 6-5 O/U. Sportsbooks still tend to inflate their totals, however, and they’ve been going UNDER of late as a result. Atlanta has cashed UNDER bets in each of its past three contests and I’m expecting this one to stay below the total as well.
