The Panthers are coming off one of the biggest comebacks of the season, scoring 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points after being held scoreless through the first 49 minutes. They walked away with a 21-17 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. Their offense will need to get off to a better start this Sunday when they take on the Baltimore Ravens, who owns the league’s best defense.
The Ravens will try to rebound after being an extra point away from going to OT with the New Orleans Saints last weekend. With only 2:03 remaining on the clock, Joe Flacco led them down the field to score what looked like the game-tying TD, but kicker Justin Tucker missed the extra point. It was his first point-after miss in 223 attempts. Baltimore opened as a 2-point road favorite against the Panthers, with the total set at 43.
Ravens vs Panthers Game Center
Baltimore defense will overwhelm Cam Newton, take Ravens to cover:
The Ravens defense held one of the top offenses in check last weekend, only allowing the Saints to score seven points through the first three quarters. They’ve been scary good statistically as they lead the league in the following defensive categories:
In any defensive stat that you can think of that isn’t on that list, the Ravens are still in the top 10 in the league. In simple terms, they’re very good on the defensive side of the football.
The Panthers haven’t shown any indications that their offense can hang with the Ravens defense. They were held scoreless through the first three quarters last week, looking lackluster trying to move the ball down the field. They’re in the bottom five in passing plays of 20-plus yards, and dead last in passing plays of 40-plus yards, only completing a single play through the air over the 40-yard mark. Cam Newton also ranks 25th in the league in passing yards per game, only managing an average of 237.8 per contest.
The mismatch between the Ravens defense and the Panthers offense makes me feel comfortable taking Baltimore on the spread.
Ravens have a slight offensive edge
On top of the clear advantage Baltimore has on defense, its offense has performed slightly better to this point of the season as well. The Ravens rank ninth in the NFL in offensive yards per game with 387 compared to the Panthers’ 370. The same could be said for points per game with the Ravens scoring 25.1 points per game compared to the Panthers’ 23.7. While the differences between those numbers aren’t substantial, it’s interesting to note that the Panthers don’t have the statistical advantage on either side of the ball.
The one area in which Carolina has the upper hand is in the running game. The Panthers are first in the league in yards per attempt at 5.2, and fourth in the league in rush yards per game with 136.3. If they want any hope at accumulating some offensive push in this game, they’ll have to lean on Christian McCaffrey, but it’s a tall order against a Ravens defense that’s only allowing 90.1 yards on the ground per game.
The UNDER is an attractive play
With the total set at 43 points, you may want to consider placing a wager on the UNDER as well. The total has gone UNDER in the Ravens’ last five games, with an average combined score of 34 points in those contests, which is nine points below this game’s total.
Both teams’ offenses are capable of having brutal games. The Ravens were held to single-digit points in Week 5 against the Browns, and the Panthers have been held to 17 points or less twice this season, not to mention last week when they didn’t score a single point through the first three quarters.
After a trend of OVERs hitting through the first six weeks of the season, sportsbooks started to correct the numbers and we saw the UNDER hit in 10 of the 14 games last week. Fading the OVERs for another week may be a smart play, and this game looks like a solid matchup to implement that strategy.