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Resurgent Ravens Look for Revenge Against Gronk-less Pats

If you would’ve asked me about this game at the start of the season, I would’ve predicted the Patriots in a blowout. With the Ravens now surging, however, it becomes a little more complicated to forecast the outcome of this sneaky good Monday night matchup that could be somewhat reminiscent of their 2015 divisional playoff game that the Pats won en route to their fourth franchise Super Bowl victory.

  • The Ravens are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games against the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home.
  • Baltimore has the No. 1 DVOA defense in the NFL.

It’s become clear that the Patriots are not the same team without superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski and with him now out for the remainder of the season, there is a shadow cast on the Patriots’ championship plans. When these teams last faced each other, Gronk was a nightmare. He caught seven passes for 108 yards and a touchdown, giving New England the edge in a tight contest.

Bring it back to present day and look at the Pats’ last two matchups with the LA Rams and the New York Jets. Yes, they won both those games and, yes, they covered last week but let’s be honest here: the Jets and Rams are godawful football teams that the Pats should have blown out of the water. The Ravens present a much stiffer challenge and if you look at what they’ve been doing of late, Bill Belichick and the Patriots could be in serious trouble.

Baltimore has won and covered in four of its last five games and has allowed more than 17 points in just one game during that span – against the No. 1 DVOA offense. Joe Flacco led his team to 38 points last week and if he can come anywhere close to replicating what he did against the Pats in that 2015 divisional game (292 yards with four touchdowns), the Ravens have a great chance for an upset.  

Tom Brady has been leaning on LeGarrette Blount a lot in the absence of Gronk but that’s probably not going to be an option against the Ravens’ league-best run defense. I think Baltimore’s secondary bends but doesn’t break and I’m leaning toward the points for the black and purple.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

On the opening betting line for this matchup, the New England Patriots sat as -9-point favorites at shops such as BetOnline. The total, has been pegged by the odds makers at GTbets.eu at 44.5.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas picked a 31-14 win for the Patriots. Injuries during the week may cause the formula to be re-run, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

This season the New England Patriots are 10-2 overall and 9-3 ATS against the spread, while the Ravens are 7-5 and 6-6 ATS. As for the totals, New England is 4-7-1 on the OU, and Baltimore is 4-7-1. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Baltimore injuries news.

The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the New England Patriots rated this week at No. 1 and the Baltimore Ravens sitting at No. 10.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the New England Patriots No. 6-ranked offense (26.58 PPG) against a Baltimore Ravens defense that ranks No. 3 at 17.25 PPG. The Patriots passing attack has averaged 270.42 yards per game, more than the Ravens give up through the air (222.25 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Baltimore Ravens feature the league's No. 12-rated road run defense, allowing 100.8 yards per game. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, ranks No. 11 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Betting Trends
  • Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
  • Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
  • New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 10 games
  • New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Baltimore home to Philadelphia, Sunday, December 18th
New England at Denver, Sunday, December 18th