Conventional betting wisdom tells us to select a few games where we find edges, study them closely and finally decide on a few games to bet on.
Unconventional wisdom suggests that, on some weeks, betting every game on the board blindly can be profitable, regardless of the odds.
Betting every game on the board? Are we crazy? Maybe, but perhaps crazy like a fox.
In a week following one where all the games went way over the total, sportsbooks often add a bit to the totals, inflating the number and giving an extra point or two of value to UNDER bettors.
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Sometimes, like in Week 17s for the past 8-10 years, betting OVER has proven very profitable. And fully half of the league's teams are riding significant OVER trends into this week.
Logically this is not just a fluke. Some teams are pulling out all the stops to win - no sense playing it safe. Other teams have rookies and journeymen working like crazy to try to earn a spot next season. How else to explain rookie third-stringer Joe Webb outplaying Mike Vick this week?
In the past five years, the Odds Shark NFL database shows that the OVER has always outperformed the UNDER, albeit only slightly (9-7 three times, 10-6 once and 10-5-1 in 2005).
The Odds Shark NFL scores prediction engine also tabs this week as a marginal edge for the OVER, although two swing games where our prediction landed precisely on the Sportsbook total could prove our bet over theory right. [ See the Week 17 picks here ]
If you don't like the idea of betting the board, check out the over under trends for the teams listed below, all of which favor the OVER (no team has a trend pointing them UNDER).
Week 17 OVER trends: get the latest over under lines and the most creative bets imaginable at Sportsbook:
- Atlanta is 15-5 OVER in their last 20 Week 17 games
- Baltimore is 10-2 OVER in their last 12 Week 17 games.
- Buffalo is 12-2 OVER in past 14 season-ending matches
- Cincinnati is OVER is 5-1 past 6 season-ending games on road
- Denver is 9-1 OVER in their last 10 Week 17 games
- Detroit is 8-0 OVER in their last 8 Week 17 games
- Jacksonville played 5 straight season-ending OVERs
- Miami is 9-1 OVER in their last 10 Week 17 games
- New Orleans played 5 straight season-ending OVERs
- NY Giants OVER is 9-2 past 11 season-ending games
- NY Jets are OVER is 8-2 past 10 season-ending games
- Pittsburgh is OVER is 10-2 past 12 season-ending games
- Seattle is OVER is 12-4 past 16 season-ending games
- Tennessee is OVER is 8-3 past 11 season ending games
- Washington is OVER is 9-1 past 10 season ending games