Bills vs Broncos NFL Wild Card Round Odds & Picks

The Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos in the AFC Wild Card round as 9-point favorites. Oddsmakers set the total at 47 in a game between two quarterbacks (Josh Allen and Bo Nix) who are playing really well.

The Broncos find themselves in their first playoff game since their 2015 Super Bowl season, while Buffalo is making its sixth-straight playoff appearance.

Keep reading for all the Broncos vs Bills odds, and my best bets for this Wild Card weekend showdown.

Broncos vs Bills Wild Card Odds

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills, January 12th, 1 pm ET

**Broncos vs Bills** Odds
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Denver Broncos	+9 (-110)	+350	O 47 (-110)
Buffalo Bills	-9 (-110)	-450	U 47 (-110)

Shop around because there are sportsbooks that have the Bills listed at -8.5, and at that number, a 6-point teaser leg is worth considering.

Broncos vs Bills Wild Card Picks

Bills Moneyline (-450)

I wouldn't be at all surprised to Sean Payton cover the number and give Bills fans a scare, but the Bills are a good bet to win this game outright. I understand you may be disappointed to see a moneyline bet in this space, but it's a fair number for arguably the best team in the NFL vs. a Broncos squad that's good, but not great.

Playoff football is all about quarterback composure and I'll trust Josh Allen and his 10 career playoff starts (21 TD, 4 INT) over Bo Nix making his first career postseason appearance. It's also worth noting that the Broncos have lost three games this season to mobile quarterbacks (Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson).

One of Denver's biggest strengths this season will be neutralized. Denver ranks 3rd in redzone defense (46.94%), but is facing a Buffalo team with Allen that's an absolute juggernaut close to the goal line. The Bills ranked 2nd in the NFL in redzone scoring (71.64%) and now that the playoffs are here I'd expect Allen to take even more chances with his legs. Denver's redzone defense has been worse the last three weeks (63.64%) and the Bills can capitalize on their mistakes.

I don't give Denver any credit for beating up on Kansas City's backups last week and they were 1-2 in their prior three games before that. The Bills meanwhile, has won 10 of 11 games before resting starters last week. Buffalo's offense had scored 30+ points in eight of their nine games prior to last week.

Buffalo is 8-0 at home this year and their fans get a little extra rowdy for playoff games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost four of their last five road games with their only win coming vs. the lowly Raiders.

Broncos vs Bills Wild Card Props

Josh Allen O7.5 rush attempts (+102) at FanDuel

Throughout his career, Josh Allen has more rush attempts/game in the postseason (8.3) than in the regular season (6.84). This is often the case for mobile quarterbacks as they're more willing to run in the postseason and coaches are willing to call more designed runs.

The Broncos love to run man coverage which forces defensive backs to turn their back on the quarterback and give running them a chance to exploit them with their legs like Anthony Richardson did when he collected 46 yards and a touchdown on seven carries in Week 15.

Allen runs the ball more when the Bills' backs are against the wall vs. strong teams. For instance, his three games this season with double-digit rush attempts came vs. three really good teams (Detroit, Kansas City, and the Rams).

The Broncos have two stud cornerbacks so Allen will be forced to improvise more as his wide receivers may struggle to get open.