Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Odds & Picks: Why Doubt Mahomes?

Can anyone stop Patrick Mahomes? Oddsmakers are giving a slight edge to the Chiefs in this AFC Championship game, positioning Kansas City as 1.5-point favorites against Buffalo.

The Chiefs have won the last two AFC Championship games (and Super Bowls), looking to rattle off a three-peat this year. As +104 underdogs, the Bills hope to break the run.

I've got my full picks for the Bills vs Chiefs odds below. If you're gonna lock in a pick for this game, be sure to use BetMGM's odds boost token:

Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Odds

Bills vs Chiefs, January 26fth, 6:30 pm ET

Odds as of January 24th at Sportsbook 

Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Picks

Chiefs 1.5 (-112) at Sportsbook 

Betting against the Chiefs in these big playoff games may be the dumbest thing you can do. Over the last five years the Chiefs are 15-2 in the playoffs. Of those 15 wins, not a single one has been within three points, either.

I know a lot of people think the Chiefs didn't play that well in the regular season, covering the spread in just seven of 17 contests. But, this is a team that's won three of the last five Super Bowls — regular season games don't matter (also, they still posted the NFL's best 15-2 record).

Last week, the real playoff Chiefs locked in. Steve Spagnuolo's defense held a Texans offense that averaged 22 points per game to just 14. Travis Kelce popped off for 117 yards, more than any total he posted this season. Kansas City was in control the whole way.

In the last five years, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have played the Bills three times. They've won every time, covering -1.5 in each contest as well. The playoff Chiefs are different.

Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Props

Dalton Kincaid OVER 33.5 Rec Yards (-110) at Sportsbook

If there's one matchup where the Bills' have a clear edge, it's Kincaid against Kansas City's defense. 

The Chiefs allowed the most yardage to tight ends in football this year, letting up over 70 yards per game to the position. Last week, we saw Houston TE Dalton Schultz post 63 yards on four catches, his highest yardage total in 10 weeks. Kincaid can certainly get OVER 33.5.

Kincaid has gone OVER this mark in seven of 15 total games this year. The big key here is his ability to do it in big games, though. Kincaid had 47 yards against the Ravens in Week 4 and 53 in a huge game against the Lions. The TE1 was hurt for Buffalo's regular season win over Kansas City, though.

He wasn't able to break through in the snowy and freezing temperatures in Buffalo last week, but posted 47 yards on three catches against Denver in the Wild-Card Round.

Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Betting Trends

• The Bills are 8-4 in their last 12 road game
• The OVER hit in five of the Bills' last six road games
• The Bills are 4-2 against the spread in their last six
• Patrick Mahomes has gone OVER 249.5 passing yards in five of his last six games against bottom-10 defenses (He's +100 to surpass that at FanDuel this week)