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Brady vs Brees: 400th Touchdown Prop

Two of the greatest quarterbacks of this generation are creeping toward the 400-TD milestone and one is favored to get there faster than the other.

Drew Brees has 397 touchdowns, while Tom Brady currently stands at 396, but online sportsbook Bovada has Brees favored as a -250 moneyline wager. Brady is the underdog at +170 (meaning a $100 bet turns out a $170 profit).

Does Brees have a better chance against a Buccaneers defense that was shredded by rookie Marcus Mariota in Week 1? Probably. The odds that Brady can do even better and throw four touchdown passes against a strong Bills defense seem longer.

In Brady's past five contests against the Bills he has thrown nine touchdown passes, an average of just 1.8 touchdowns per game. Brees, on the other hand, has got the ball to the end zone 12 times in his past five games against the Buccaneers, for an average of 2.4 touchdowns.

Both are destined to surpass Dan Marino, with 420 career touchdown passes, by mid-season as they aim for Brett Favre in second place at 508 TDs. It seems unlikely anyone will catch the NFL all-time TD leader, because he keeps putting up scores.

Peyton Manning stands at 530 and counting, although he stalled in Week 1 and his prop numbers for the Thursday Night battle at Kansas City are expected to be lower than usual.

Who will reach 400 TD Passes first?

Odds as of September 16 at Bovada

  • Drew Brees -250
  • Tom Brady +170

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