The Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 3.5 point underdogs in Week 16 action on Sunday Night Football. In a game with two solid passing offenses, oddsmakers set the total at 48.5 points.
The Buccaneers need a win to stay ahead of the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South and the Cowboys are playing for pride at this point. Dallas has quietly won three of its last four games.
Keep reading to see how I'm approaching this Buccaneers vs. Cowboys game from a betting perspective.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Odds Week 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys, December 22, 8:20 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.5 (-118) | -205 | O 48.5 (-108) |
| Dallas Cowboys | +3.5 (-104) | +172 | U 48.5 (-112) |
Odds via FanDuel as of Dec. 20
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Week 16 Picks
Bucs Moneyline (-205)
Tampa Bay knows the Falcons are lurking behind it in the NFC South along with the all important tiebreaker. We should get an inspired effort from the Bucs in this game, but the same can't be said for the Cowboys whose season is dead and have a 1-6 record at home this season. Sadly, Jake Paul has as many wins at Jerry World as the Cowboys do this year.
Matchup wise, I think the Bucs can neutralize Micah Parsons and that Dallas pass rush because they have one of the better tackle tandems in the NFL. Baker Mayfield was only sacked once last week and PFF.com says Tampa Bay has the fourth best offensive line in the league.
Dallas has the worst redzone defense in the NFL (73.33% touchdowns allowed) while Bucs are the 6th best team at punching it in the endzone (65.45%). Meanwhile, Dallas is 28th best at redzone offense (47.5%) and Tampa ranks 10th in redzone defense (51.92%).
The Bucs look poised to finish the season strong like they did last year when they won five of their final six games. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 4-4 in games played Week 15 or later dating dating back to 2022.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Week 16 Props
Mike Evans Rec. Yards O70.5 (-117)
Mike Evans has come contract incentives that are triggered if he finished the year strong. Between the personal motivation and the motivation to get back to the playoffs, I'm expecting a fully focused Evans in this one.
Dallas cornerback DaRon Bland has been good since returning from injury, but he's not been playing a well as last year. Evans should be able to take advantage and make Bland look bad.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys News
Last week, two key Bucs defenders missed the game and you'll want to monitor their practice habits this week to see if they have a chance to return. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr and linebacker KJ Britt are both veteran starters who can make a big impact when healthy, but they didn't practice on Wenesday.
Baker Mayfield (knee) and Cade Otton (knee) also didn't practice Wednesday, but Mayfield was back Thursday so he'll be ready to go. Otton remained out on Thursday along with Tackle Tristan Wirfs who has a foot and knee injury. Wirfs impact on this game is huge, so it'll be interesting to see if he practices Friday.
Six Cowboys players didn't practice Wednesday including Eric Kendricks, Trevon Diggs, Mazi Smith and Nick Vigil. Of those four, Smith returned Thursday and got in a limited session while the others remained out.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Week 16 Betting Trends
- Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 home games
- Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games
- Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games against Dallas
- Dallas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas' last 5 games
- Dallas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas' last 8 games against Tampa Bay
