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Saints consensus pick to beat Bucs

A team that lost 48-3 last week opened as just 3.5-point underdogs against the high-powered Saints?

Is this an oddsmaker error as New Orleans visits Tampa Bay on the Week 6 NFL odds menu? Maybe, as the Saints are 7-2 ATS in their past nine trips to Tampa, which got killed by the 49ers in Week 5.

The Buccaneers have been a tough dog lately, going 6-2 ATS while the OVER has been a reliable wager when the Saints are small faves of 4 or less points (14-2 past 16 times).

It's the most lopsided voting and betting game of the week so far, according to the consensus NFL betting data here. More than 70% of visitors are backing the Saints to cover the Bucs-Saints spread.

View New Orleans vs Tampa Bay Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
If you're going with the Buccaneers in this one, they're listed as 3.5-point underdogs on the betting line for the contest. Totals bettors have seen that number set at 49 for the game over at TopBet. The best Bucs line is +5 at Bovada.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 25-rated Buccaneers and the No. 6-rated Saints in this matchup. Predictive formulas point to a 31-17 win for the Saints on Sunday. That would be enough for the Saints cover so many are predicting.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Tampa Bay's No. 27-ranked offense (17.4 PPG) against a Saints defense that ranks No. 20 at 25 PPG. The Buccaneers passing attack has averaged 225.8 yards per game, less than the Saints give up through the air (247 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Saints feature the league's No. 19-rated road run defense, allowing 123 yards per game. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, ranks No. 15 in rushing offense at home.

In their last action, New Orleans was a 30-27 winner on the road against the Panthers. They failed to cover the 6.5–point spread as favorites, while the combined score (57) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Drew Brees led his team to victory last time out, throwing for 359 yards Sunday as the Saints downed the Panthers 30-27 at Bank of America Stadium.

Tampa Bay lost its last outing, a 48-3 result against the 49ers on October 9. The Buccaneers failed to cover in that game as a 2.5-point underdog, while the 51 combined points took the game OVER the total.

New Orleans Saints Trends:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the division are 6-4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trends:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 5-5

A few Saints at Buccaneers trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

Next up:
New Orleans home to Indianapolis, Sunday, October 23
Tampa Bay home to Chicago, Sunday, October 23