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Falcons Have Been Easily Dispatching Bills in Recent Years

The Buffalo Bills are a tough team to figure out heading into Week 4 of the NFL campaign. After shipping out some of the team’s most talented players in the preseason, many thought the Bills were going full tank mode in order to achieve a high draft pick next year. But on the heels of a big win in Week 3, Tyrod Taylor and company will look to keep the good times rolling against Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

MyBookie opened the Bills as big 8-point underdogs with a total of 48.

Shark Bites
  • The Bills are 6-19 SU in their last 25 games after winning as an underdog.
  • The Falcons are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games in Week 4.
  • The Bills are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games in Week 4.

One week after the Denver Broncos decimated the high-flying Dallas Cowboys, the Bills brought them back down to earth with a huge 26-16 victory at New Era Field. Taylor continued to impress under center for Buffalo, as the signal-caller threw for 213 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the win. Buffalo’s defense was equally impressive, sealing the deal by forcing Denver to turn over the ball on each of its final four possessions, including two interceptions and two fourth-down stops. 

The bad news for Bills bettors is their poor history when facing the Falcons in recent years. In Buffalo’s last four vs Atlanta, they’re an ugly 0-4 SU. The Falcons have won by an average of 10.5 points in that span.  

Atlanta is unbeaten on the year after surviving a late rally against the Detroit Lions in Week 3. The Falcons got a bit lucky at the end of that one as Golden Tate’s go-ahead touchdown in the dying seconds was called back after a review from the booth. 

Matt Ryan didn’t have his best game against the Lions, so he’ll need to step up vs a formidable Bills defensive unit. The reigning NFL MVP threw three picks against Detroit, which is unusual for him considering he didn’t throw multiple interceptions in a single game in 2016. 

OVER bettors will be paying close attention to this tilt, and for good reason. The Falcons have gone above the closing total in each of their last 11 at home and the OVER is 6-1 in the previous seven meetings between the Bills and Falcons.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Odds at sportsbooks such as Bovada had the Atlanta Falcons pegged as 8.5-point favorites in this betting matchup. The total, meanwhile, was listed by books like TopBet at 49.

OddsShark analytical formulas picked a 27-14 win for the Falcons on Sunday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Buffalo Bills will try to spoil to the party on Sunday; they are 2-0-1 against the spread this season, while the Atlanta Falcons are 2-1 ATS. Buffalo is 1-2 on the OVER/UNDER betting totals; Atlanta is 2-1. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Atlanta vs Buffalo injuries news.

This game matches up the No. 3 (Atlanta Falcons) and the No. 22 (Buffalo Bills) teams in the league, according to our current NFL Power Rankings at OddsShark.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Atlanta's No. 5-ranked offense, averaging 29 PPG, against a Bills defense that ranks No. 1 this week at 12.33 PPG. The Falcons aerial game is averaging 269.33 yards per game, more than the Bills secondary allows through the air, 203 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Buffalo Bills own the league's No. 8-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 77 yards per game when on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, rates No. 6 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Tyrod Taylor passed for 2 touchdowns in his team's last game in leading the Bills past Denver 26-16 on Sunday.

Last time we saw the Lions, they had no answer for Devonta Freeman as the Falcons rolled to a 30-26 victory at Ford Field.

Betting Trends
  • Buffalo is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo's last 15 games
  • Buffalo is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
  • Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Atlanta is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Atlanta's last 12 games
  • Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Buffalo at Cincinnati, Sunday, October 8
Atlanta home to Miami, Sunday, October 15