Andrew Luck

Colts Welcome Buffalo as Big Favorites

The offense of the 1-5 SU Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) is finally coming together, but the defense has a lot of work to do. They appear to have caught a break, as they take on the 2-4 SU Buffalo Bills (+6.5) at home on Sunday. With Buffalo trotting out a backup quarterback, the total opened at a low 42.5 points.

SHARK BITES
  • The UNDER has hit in four of Buffalo’s last 5 games.
  • The UNDER has hit in six of Indianapolis’ last seven games against Buffalo.
  • Indianapolis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games against Buffalo.

Bills vs Colts Game Center

MY PICK FOR SUNDAY: COLTS -6.5

While the Buffalo Bills have one more win than the Colts, and have a 3-3 ATS record (which is better than the Colts’ 2-4 ATS ledger), Buffalo posed much more of a threat when Josh Allen is under center. Allen was injured in Week 6, when he took a helmet directly to his throwing elbow, and he had to leave the game.

With Allen out, an already-suspect offense becomes even less fearful, which plays right into the hands of a Colts club whose biggest deficiency is, well, defense.

With not as much pressure on the NFL’s third-worst defense, Indianapolis actually has a chance to notch its second victory of the season on the shoulders of Andrew Luck. The Colts have scored at least 21 points in five of their six contests, and had close losses to the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and a tough Houston Texans squad.

The Colts will get their points against a solid Buffalo defensive unit, but the absence of Allen, who was ruled out for Sunday and is week to week with a right elbow injury, means Buffalo will not be able to keep pace. I don’t anticipate a blowout, but the Colts winning by at a touchdown seems very likely.

LOSING ALLEN IS BAD ENOUGH…

…but when that also means that Nathan Peterman goes back under center, that may even be worse.

During their Week 6 contest against Houston, the Bills found themselves with the football, the game tied and about 1:30 left in the fourth quarter.

Peterman, who entered in the third quarter in place of the injured Allen, obviously would throw a pick-six, giving Houston the late lead. He would add another interception on the following drive, finishing 6-for-12 for 61 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

For his career, Peterman has played in six games, with three touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 29.9 passer rating. Not only has he been unable to top 100 yards passing in a game, his penchant for interceptions actually creates negative value to his club.

The Bills signed veteran Derek Anderson, but that doesn’t move the needle very much. If it is Anderson, or if Peterman is back as the quarterback, expecting any kind of offensive output — or Buffalo to cover any spread — will be very difficult to justify.

NO T.Y.? NO PROBLEM

The Indianapolis Colts have been without star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton the past two weeks, but that hasn’t slowed the passing attack down.

The Colts have thrown for more than 300 yards in both of those games, and three contests overall, with Luck spreading the ball around to a number of receivers. The biggest beneficiary of Hilton’s absence, however, has been tight end Eric Ebron.

The former first-round pick of the Detroit Lions, Ebron has broken out the past two weeks, logging 176 yards and three touchdowns, compared to 150 yards and three scores in the first four games combined.

Ebron paces the Colts with 326 receiving yards on the season. While Hilton is still second, Indy is also getting meaningful contributions from Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers, giving them four viable passing options when Hilton finally returns to the lineup.

Hilton’s status is still up in the air for Week 7, and his presence would be greatly welcomed against a Bills team that allows the sixth-fewest passing yards per game. If Hilton does suit up, it obviously greatly increases the Colts’ odds of covering their spread, but the added expected points could make the OVER a relative possibility too.

The UNDER has hit in four of Buffalo’s last 5 games.away The UNDER has hit in six of Indianapolis’ last seven games against Buffalo. Indianapolis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games against Buffalo.
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