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Pats can kill Bills’ playoff hopes in Foxborough

The New England Patriots survived a bloodbath in Pittsburgh in Week 15 and are back in the driver’s seat in the AFC. The Pats are 11-3 SU this season and will lock horns with their divisional rival, the Buffalo Bills, who have snuck back into the playoff picture at 8-6 SU with a victory over the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo opened as a 12.5-point road dog vs the Pats.

  • The Patriots are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Bills are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games vs AFC East teams.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six games in this matchup.

The Bills have improbably kept their heads above water in the AFC playoff race and hold the slight edge for the final spot over the Baltimore Ravens. Buffalo’s offense vs the Dolphins was led by LeSean McCoy, who scored two touchdowns, and Tyrod Taylor was his usual steady self, throwing for 224 yards and one touchdown while rushing for another. But that was against Miami. This week is a different story and many of the previous chapters of this matchup did not bode well for Buffalo. The Bills are 3-25 SU in their last 28 games vs the Pats, including in Week 14 when they were shut down 23-3 at home.

If it wasn’t dire enough for Buffalo, bettors should know the Bills are 0-10 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games on the road as a double-digit dog. So, there may be a slight chance they could cover but it would be irrational confidence at this stage to place a wager on the Bills.

On the other hand, the Patriots continue to roll and have owned Buffalo at Gillette Stadium. New England is 8-2 SU in the last 10 home games vs the Bills with an average win margin of 10.5 points. Rob Gronkowski came back huge from suspension vs the Steelers, hauling in nine receptions for 168 yards and will look to be on his best behavior after being suspended for a cheap shot to Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White. And while such a large spread can scare bettors off, the Pats do have a decent track record of eating the points as they’re 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as double-digit home favorites and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as the favorite.

The total opened at 47 and it’s hard to get a read on which way this game could go scoring-wise. The O/U is 5-5 in the last 10 games in this matchup, with the UNDER hitting in three of the last four games between these two divisional foes.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Buffalo Bills opened as 10-point underdogs in this one at most sportsbooks tracked here at OddsShark (including BetOnline), while the total was hovering around 47 at most shops.

OddsShark computer NFL score prediction models picked a possible 37-8 win for the Patriots on Sunday. That score may change during the week if injury or weather factors alter the numbers, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Supporters of the Buffalo Bills have seen them go 8-6 and 7-5-2 ATS so far this season, while the New England Patriots are at 11-3 and 9-5 ATS. In totals betting, the Patriots are 6-8, while the Bills are 7-7. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Buffalo injuries news.

According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 6-rated Patriots and the No. 27-rated Bills in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits New England's No. 4-ranked offense, averaging 28.21 PPG, against a Bills defense that ranks No. 16 this week at 21.86 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 286.86 yards per game, more than the Bills secondary allows through the air, 229.07 YPG per game.

Defensively, the Bills feature the league's No. 16-rated road run defense, allowing 114.33 yards per game. The Patriots, meanwhile, rank No. 14 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

The Bills grabbed a Week 15 victory over the Dolphins in their last game, winning 24-16 at New Era Field.

In their last gridiron battle, Rob Gronkowski did much of the damage, producing 168 receiving yards as New England beat the Steelers 27-24 at Heinz Field.

Betting Trends
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games
  • Buffalo is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
  • Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
  • New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
  • New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
  • New England is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Buffalo at Miami, Sunday, December 31
New England home to New York, Sunday, December 31