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Patriots Have Flat out Owned the Bills

No need to beat around the bush — the Patriots are 27-3 SU and 18-10-2 ATS vs the Bills since 2001. This matchup has been about as one-sided as it gets and it’s not even close as only six of those 27 New England wins were decided by less than a TD. To pile on Buffalo even more, going all the way back to 1995, they’re just 3-18 SU on the road in New England.

Shark Bites
  • In the last four games that LeGarrette Blount received 22 or more touches, he’s averaged 106.7 rush yards with at least 1 TD.
  • The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home.
  • The Bills are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games after winning as an underdog.

The big question this week will be who’s taking snaps for the Patriots with Jacoby Brissett banging up his thumb and Jimmy Garoppolo still recovering from a shoulder injury. Brissett practised early in the week, making him the likely starter. Either way, the Patriots are likely to pound the ball and add to their league-leading 452 rushing yards. The Bills have already allowed five rushing TDs — the third-most in the NFL this season.

One of Buffalo’s biggest issues the past few seasons has been their inability to string together wins. They had a big upset win over the Cardinals last week, but are 8-25 SU in their last 33 games after a win and haven’t won in consecutive weeks as an underdog since 2009, which is a very long stretch considering how often they're the underdog.

Handicapping prediction models run by the computers at OddsShark pick a 29-13 result in favor of the Patriots. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The New England Patriots are 3-0 so far on the season, and 3-0 ATS vs the point spread. The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile, are 1-2 and 1-2 ATS. Those over under betting have seen New England go 1-1-1 and the Buffalo Bills go 2-1 on the totals. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Buffalo injuries news.

This game matches up the No. 8 (New England Patriots) and the No. 14 (Buffalo Bills) teams in the league, according to our current NFL Power Rankings at Odds Shark.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits New England's No. 6-ranked offense, averaging 27 PPG, against a Bills defense that ranks No. 17 this week at 22.67 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 219.33 yards per game, less than the Bills secondary allows through the air, 276.33 YPG per game.

Defensively, the Buffalo Bills feature the league's No. 8-rated road run defense, allowing 83 yards per game. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, ranks No. 1 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

LeSean McCoy went over the 100-yard mark (110) in his team's latest effort as Buffalo defeated Arizona by a score of 33-18 on Sunday.

Betting Trends
  • Buffalo is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against New England
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
  • Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
  • Buffalo is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games when playing New England
  • New England is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo
  • New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Buffalo
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo
  • New England is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games when playing Buffalo

Next Betting Matchups

Buffalo at Los Angeles, Sunday, October 9th
New England at Cleveland, Sunday, October 9th