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Desperate Browns Short Home Favorites Over 6-2 Bills

It might be last call for the Cleveland Browns’ playoff hopes Sunday when they host the 6-2 Buffalo Bills. Cleveland (2-6) has lost four straight games and is still winless at home, while the Bills are a perfect 3-0 on the road.

Matchup Information
  • Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns (Matchup Report)
  • Date/Time: November 10, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Buffalo +3 | O/U 41.5 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

It’s not often in the NFL that you see a 2-6 team laying points against a 6-2 opponent, but that’s the case here as oddsmakers opened Cleveland -3. Bettors have been quick to back Buffalo, moving the line down under a field goal. The UNDER has also seen early support, dropping a point to 40.5 as of Monday night.

Buffalo News & Notes

Just how good are the Bills anyway? We still don’t really know. Buffalo roughed up the Washington Redskins 24-9 last week to improve to 6-2 on the campaign, but those six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 9-43. And even in a 15-point victory, there were plenty of things not to like about the Bills’ performance, such as allowing 101 rushing yards to Adrian Peterson in the first half.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen also continued to post underwhelming numbers, passing for just 160 yards — the third time in five outings he’s failed to top 170. “Yeah, we’re a work-in-progress,” acknowledged Bills coach Sean McDermott.

On the other hand, the Bills defense buckled down in the second half against Washington, limiting Peterson to just seven rushing yards and allowing just a 39-yard field goal. By holding the Redskins out of the end zone, Buffalo also continued a streak of 12 consecutive games allowing fewer than two passing touchdowns, tying a franchise record.

And on offense, Devin Singletary has emerged as the Bills’ most dangerous running back, running for 95 yards and a touchdown last week as the feature back ahead of Frank Gore. Their games aren’t pretty (the UNDER is 6-2 in Buffalo games this season), but they continue to get the job done (7-3 ATS in their last 10).

Cleveland News & Notes

After enduring a murderous schedule in the first half of the season, last week was when the Browns were finally supposed to turn things around and look like the team that was hyped up over the summer as AFC North favorites. That didn’t happen. Despite outgaining Denver 351-302 in yards and 21-13 in first downs, the Browns trailed virtually from wire to wire in a 24-19 loss to the 3-6 Broncos.

Week after week, it seems as if the Browns are just finding ways to lose. Against Denver, it was allowing big plays against a quarterback who hadn’t started a game in nearly four years (Brandon Allen threw TD passes of 25 and 75 yards) and a lack of execution in the red zone (the Browns kicked four field goals from inside the Denver 20 and were also stopped twice on downs).

If there’s any good news for Cleveland right now, it’s that Kareem Hunt will make his season debut this week after serving an eight-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. Hunt “will definitely have a role” against Buffalo, Cleveland coach Freddie Kitchens told reporters.

Betting Pick: Bills +2

With great expectations comes great pressure, and the Browns haven’t handled it well. Look for Cleveland to remain winless at home and for the Bills to somehow find a way once again.

Shark Bites
  • The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
  • The Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites.
  • The Browns are 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games at home vs teams with winning records.