Texans Field Goal Favorites Over Bills on Wild Card Weekend

Buffalo rested its starters in Week 17’s loss to the Jets. The Bills finished the regular season 10-6 straight up, 9-6-1 ATS and 6-1-1 ATS on the road and the UNDER hit in 12 of their 16 games.

Houston also rested starters in its loss to the Titans. The Texans posted a 10-6 SU record but were only 7-8-1 ATS, lowlighted by a paltry 2-6 ATS home record.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Texans opened as 3.5-point home favorites before a slight pullback to Houston -3. Buffalo’s moneyline opened at +158 and the consensus point total at 38.5 before a significant jump to 41.5. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Bills’ last 15 road games with an average combined score of 36.8.

Buffalo News & Notes

Buffalo Pass Offense vs Houston

As most know, the Bills lean on their running game to pace the offense. Buffalo averaged just 201.8 pass yards per game and 181 PYPG over its final three games. Quarterback Josh Allen passed for 233 or more yards only twice over his last 13 games of the season.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Bills adjust their offensive play-calling against Houston’s 29th-ranked pass defense that has allowed 267.2 yards per game this season. If they don’t adapt to the aerial advantage, you may see Allen tuck and run more often when he drops back to pass.

Buffalo Rush Offense vs Houston

Despite some late-season regression, the Bills averaged 128.4 rush yards per game. Rookie running back Devin Singletary and veteran Frank Gore account for 66.8 percent of the run production and both are healthy heading into this wild-card matchup. Not to be outdone, Allen’s mobility accounted for 24.8 percent of the team’s rushing total and nine of its 13 rushing touchdowns.

The Bills’ rush O vs the Texans’ rush D is the key matchup because Houston has been carved up on the ground this year to the tune of 128.4 rush yards allowed per game, which ranks 25th. The Texans have allowed 171.3 RYPG over the past three, which is inflated somewhat by Derrick Henry’s 211 yards last Sunday. If Buffalo can control the clock and dominate time of possession via the run, Houston is at a huge disadvantage.

Buffalo Defense vs Houston

The two defensive metrics handicappers like myself love to hone in on are opponents’ third-down and red-zone conversion rates.

The Bills defense possesses the seventh-best third-down conversion rate as opposing offenses have converted just 35.85 percent on third down this year.

Buffalo ranks in the middle of the pack in opponents’ red-zone touchdown conversion rate at 55.8 percent, which means opposing offenses scored a touchdown 55.8 percent of the time once they got inside the Bills’ 20-yard line. However, don’t get too wrapped up in that stat as Buffalo allows the fifth-fewest red-zone attempts per game (2.7).

Injury Report

Cornerback Levi Wallace left Week 17’s game against the Jets with a non-contact right ankle injury and left in a walking boot. Defensive end Shaq Lawson is questionable with a hamstring injury. Offensive lineman Ty Nsekhe is questionable with an ankle injury.

Houston News & Notes

Houston’s Defense vs Buffalo

Journalism’s rule of thumb is never bury the lede. So, before we get to the Texans’ offensive metrics, we must call out two bright red flags on the defensive side of the ball.

Opposing offenses converted 48.5 percent of their third downs against Houston’s defense – the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Opposing offenses converted 71.43 percent of their red-zone trips into touchdowns against the Texans this season. As you may have guessed, Houston’s defense ranks dead last in that metric.

If these trends continue – and we have no reason to believe they won’t – they’ll be why Josh Allen goes into Houston and comes out with an upset wild-card victory.

Houston Pass Offense vs Buffalo

For as lauded as Deshaun Watson is as a passer, one would think his year-to-date metrics would rank better than 15th. The Texans enter the postseason averaging 236.4 pass yards per game, but to be fair, Watson’s pass protection was subpar once again. He was sacked 44 times, fourth-most among fellow signal-callers.

Buffalo’s pass defense allowed 195.2 yards per game, which ranked fourth during the regular season.

Houston Rush Offense vs Buffalo

It may be hyperbole, but Carlos Hyde’s 245 carries for 1,070 rush yards may be one of the low-key surprises of the 2019 regular season. After grinding out seasons with Lamar Miller in the backfield, Hyde paced the league’s ninth-best rush attack at 125.6 yards per game. Watson and Duke Johnson both chipped in with seasons of 400-plus rushing yards, too.

The Bills rush defense allowed 103.1 yards per game this season, 10th-lowest in the NFL, and actually saw their RYAPG metric dip to 93.3 over the last three games of the season.

Injury Report

Will Fuller has been characterized as a game-time decision by coach Bill O'Brien. Team will see how his groin feels after practice today and walk-thru to make a final call. Difficult for him to come back in two weeks, from a three-week injury, per MRI

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) January 2, 2020

The Texans need receiver Will Fuller V to return from a groin injury. Bill O’Brien said he’s heading in the right direction, but that’s coachspeak for “he’s questionable and I don’t want to talk about him anymore.” Houston lost cornerback Jonathan Joseph to a hamstring injury in its loss to the Titans but said after the game he’ll play this weekend. J.J. Watt has a shot to return this week after missing most of the season with a torn pec.

Betting Pick: UNDER 41.5, Bills ML Sprinkle

I’d expect this game to be ugly and a tough watch, but that’s the way Buffalo likes it.