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Bills, Chiefs Fight for Super Bowl Berth in AFC Championship

Josh Allen's Bills face the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. See the Buffalo vs Kansas City odds

The Buffalo Bills (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) head to Kansas City to take on the defending champion Chiefs (15-2 SU, 6-10-1 ATS) for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Bills will try to bounce back from one of their worst offensive performances of the season, but all eyes are on the Chiefs’ quarterback situation as Patrick Mahomes is listed as questionable early in the week.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
  • Date/Time: January 24, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Chiefs -5 | O/U 53.5 (Line History)
  • Bills vs Chiefs Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The game opened with the Chiefs as favorites at -5 and the line moved down to either -2.5 or -3 at a couple of other sportsbooks. The total opened at 53.5 and was immediately bet down to either 50.5 or 51 depending on the book.

Buffalo News & Notes

The 17 points that the Bills scored in their divisional-round win over the Baltimore Ravens tied for their second-fewest of the season. That matched the Bills’ output in a 26-17 loss to the Chiefs on October 19, just a week after they mustered only 16 against the Tennessee Titans.

Despite the lack of points, there was no dropoff for Bills star receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs had eight receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown and should be the primary target for quarterback Josh Allen once again in this matchup.

Buffalo passes the ball more than almost any team (Allen ranked fifth in attempts this season) and ran the ball just 16 times last week. The Chiefs could be without starting corner Bashaud Breeland, so look for the Bills to continue to attack through the air.

On defense, the Bills will hope their 13th-ranked pass defense can hold up against the Chiefs’ top-ranked aerial attack. The three points allowed to Baltimore last week was the fewest of the season for Buffalo.

Kansas City News & Notes

The status of superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes for this game has massive real-life and betting implications. Chiefs coach Andy Reid confirmed Monday that Mahomes remains in concussion protocol and they will “see how he does the next couple days.” Bettors will need to monitor the situation closely.

Chad Henne would serve as the replacement if Mahomes can’t play. Henne, an 11-year veteran, has mostly served as a backup in his career.

The good news for the Chiefs is they could get back starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and wide receiver Sammy Watkins this week. Both are listed as questionable early in the week and would be big boosts for an already potent offense. Edwards-Helaire rushed for 161 yards in the first game between these teams back in Week 6.

The Chiefs will hope to repeat their success on defense from that Week 6 matchup. Kansas City held the Bills to just 17 points in that game and Josh Allen had just 122 passing yards.

Betting Pick: Bills +3

The status of Mahomes changes everything for this game. But we like the Bills offense to bounce back against a weaker defense than they faced last week, which could be out a starting cornerback. In such a tightly contested matchup, we’ll take the points.

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Shark Bites
  • The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Chiefs are 24-2 SU in their last 26 games.