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The Kansas City Chiefs (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) will face a familiar foe in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs Sunday when they host the Buffalo Bills (12-6, 10-6-2) as small home favorites at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The Bills vs Chiefs prediction for this playoff rematch is 2.5 points in favor of the home team as they square off at Arrowhead Stadium for the third time in less than one year, with the teams splitting the past two meetings.

Bills vs Chiefs Betting Preview

Bills vs Chiefs Odds & Analysis

Opening Odds

The point spread and total have fluctuated already in early betting action, although the latest numbers do not reflect much change from the opening lines. Bettors jumped on Kansas City right away, moving the two-time defending AFC champions up to -3 before Buffalo money pushed the spread back down to -2.

The total also saw some initial movement on the UNDER, dropping down to 53 before OVER money steamed it to 55.  Bookmakers seem to have more respect for the visitors, as does the Bills vs Chiefs prediction that has the hosts favored by 2.5 points in what should be a competitive game.

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Buffalo Trying To Continue Hot Streak Of Five Straight Double-Digit Wins

When the Bills win, they win big – the numbers do not lie. Just ask the Chiefs, who saw Buffalo come to Arrowhead as a 3-point road underdog in Week 5 and blow them out 38-20.

That is one reason why the spread is a bit smaller this time around, as all of Buffalo’s 12 wins have been decided by at least 12 points following a 47-17 rout of the New England Patriots as a 4.5-point home favorite last Saturday in the wild-card round. The Bills scored seven touchdowns on their first seven possessions against the Patriots, with quarterback Josh Allen throwing for five scores and running back Devin Singletary running for another couple.

Allen was nearly unstoppable in the last meeting at Kansas City as well with 315 passing yards, 59 rushing yards and four total touchdowns.

Kansas City Hoping Fans Can Give Them An Added Boost To AFC Title Game

The Chiefs, their fans and backers would like to believe they are playing like the team that has made it to the Super Bowl the last two years. The difference now is that Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes appears to be back on track and playing with more confidence, racking up 404 passing yards and throwing five scoring strikes in a 42-21 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend.

Mahomes threw two interceptions in the most recent meeting with Buffalo and was sacked twice, and he will get yet another crack at the NFL’s top-ranked defense in this spot.

The key for him and his teammates is that this game is again at home, where they have really thrived over the past few seasons. They have won seven in a row there, covering the last five, after beating the Steelers as 11.5-point home favorites. It is worth noting that two of those wins were against the Steelers.

Bills vs Chiefs Pick & Insights

Bills: Keys To Cover

It might sound like a cliché, but the Bills simply need to play like they have been playing and stay confident in their game plan. Whatever they did the last time around worked extremely well, and they also led last year’s AFC championship game 9-0 after the first quarter before the wheels came off in an eventual 38-24 loss. Slowing the Chiefs offense down could be the difference, as they may not be able to win another shootout.

Chiefs: Keys To Cover

When Kansas City’s offense is running on all cylinders, no team in the league can stop it. If Mahomes can forget about the last meeting and play like he did in the previous playoff matchup instead, then the Bills vs Chiefs pick on them will be right as they roll into their third consecutive AFC championship game against either the Tennessee Titans or Cincinnati Bengals.

Odds Shark’s Computer Bills vs Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs -2.5 

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Shark Bites
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.
  • Buffalo is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last 4 road games.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the past 5 meetings at Kansas City.

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