Undefeated AFC East rivals clash Sunday as the Buffalo Bills (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) visit the Miami Dolphins (2-0, 2-0) in NFL Week 3 action. The Bills solidified their perch as Super Bowl betting favorites with a lopsided 41-7 win over Tennessee in Week 2. The Dolphins return home on the heels of a thrilling 42-38 comeback win in Baltimore that marked their 10th straight-up win in their past 11 outings.
Bills vs Dolphins Opening Odds
The Bills have been on the move since opening as 4.5-point road favorites, climbing to 5.5-point chalk. Considering the offensive performances of these teams last weekend, it is not surprising that the total has also been on the rise, vaulting to 53.5 since opening at 51. The Bills swept the season series with the Dolphins in 2021, including a crushing 35-0 Week 2 win in Miami, and have now claimed outright victory in seven straight head-to-head clashes.
Buffalo limited the Dolphins to just 11 total points over their two 2021 clashes, generating a 2-0 run for the UNDER in totals betting. However, it is the OVER that has paid out in 10 of its past 14 tilts. Both these teams enter Week 3 with unblemished records against the spread. Miami has also won outright in each of its past three as a home underdog, while the Bills aim to win and cover in their third straight while pegged as road chalk of 5 or more points.
Injuries On Bills Defense Emerging As A Concern
The Bills made a statement with a season-opening 31-10 rout of the defending champion Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football and looked exceedingly comfortable playing under the lights in their demolition of the Titans on Monday Night Football.
Josh Allen increased his touchdown total to seven with four scoring passes against the Titans, including a trio to Stefon Diggs. However, unlike in their win in LA, where they converted nine of 10 third downs, the Bills managed to convert just five of 13 in last week’s win over Tennessee.
The Bills defense also had another big day, limiting the Titans to just 187 net yards. However, injuries have emerged as a concern. Both cornerback Dane Jackson and safety Micah Hyde suffered neck injuries in Monday’s contest and are joined in the clinic by linebacker Matt Milano, who was forced to leave the game with a stinger.
Can Tua Build On Breakthrough Performance?
If there were any doubts about the ability of Tua Tagovailoa and his receiving corps to take control of a game, they were allayed by the Dolphins’ spectacular comeback in Baltimore last weekend. Trailing by 21 points entering the fourth quarter, Tagovailoa connected on four scoring strikes, including a pair of tosses to Tyreek Hill to seal the win.
With 469 passing yards and six touchdown passes, Tagovailoa was a lock to claim AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. And after racking up a combined 524 receiving yards and five TD catches, it is tough to disagree that Hill and Jaylen Waddle represent the deadliest receiving duo in the NFL right now.
The Dolphins defense also deserves credit for preventing a Ravens rally late in the contest. However, a repeat of their slow start in Baltimore, which left the Ravens with a 28-7 halftime lead, will not be so easy to overcome, even against a Bills defense hobbled by injury.
Bills: Keys To Win
With the Bills offense firing on all cylinders, there is little reason to expect anything less than another prolific performance from Josh Allen and company. The greater concern lies with how Monday night’s flurry of injuries will impact the defense. Both Jackson and Hyde have played key roles on a Bills defense that ranks second in the league after two weeks. And their absence will complicate this team’s ability to contain a rapidly evolving Dolphins attack.
Dolphins: Keys To Win
Tagovailoa’s performance in Sunday’s win over the Ravens has been lauded as his long-awaited breakthrough. However, after tossing four TDs in a 30-28 loss to Atlanta last season, Tagovailoa was held out of the end zone and limited to just 205 passing yards in a one-sided 26-11 loss to the Bills. Of course, he is surrounded by upgraded offensive weapons, but this game could go a long way to determining whether Tagovailoa deserves to be included among the NFL’s elite pivots.
NFL Computer Pick: UNDER 52.5
Check out more of our signature NFL and college football computer picks, plus our favorite sportsbooks that serve football customers.
Doc's Picks Service
Need more winning picks? Get $60 worth of premium member picks from Doc’s Sports – a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.
Odds Shark Staff Thu, Sep 29, 12:44pm