The clicking you can hear coming from the state of Massachusetts is the collection of New England Patriots fans hitting the panic button. The Patriots came up short in losses vs the Dolphins and Steelers and are guaranteed to have their lowest win total since 2009. However, they’ve made mincemeat of the Buffalo Bills over the last three seasons at 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games in this matchup, although the frisky Bills’ last four games have been decided by four points or less.
The Patriots opened as 10.5-point favorites (since moved to 12.5) with a total of 45.5.
- The Patriots are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in 6 home games this season.
- The Bills are 4-1 SU and ATS in five games when Josh Allen rushes for a touchdown this season.
- The UNDER has hit in 6 of the Patriots’ last 7 games.
Gillette Stadium is a Graveyard for Opposing Teams
Unless you have been living under a rock or just came out of an 18-year coma, most NFL bettors should have a pretty good idea of how good the Patriots have been at home over the years. The Pats haven’t lost a home game since Week 1 of last season and are 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS in 13 games since at Gillette Stadium, with an average win margin of 14.6 points per game. Isolating that to just this season, they’re 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Foxborough with an average win margin of 13.8 points.
I could dive into the losses against the Dolphins and Steelers and talk about where the Patriots came up short but it really came down to late-game execution and the fact that New England’s defense is not up to snuff for a Super Bowl contender. The Pats rank 23rd in passing yards allowed, 17th in rushing yards allowed, 24th in first downs allowed and 23rd in third downs converted.
Are we done with throwing dirt on the Pats for this week? Yes, because the reality is they’ve owned this matchup lately and are 4-1-1 ATS over the last three seasons vs the Bills with the one loss coming when Jacoby Brissett was in at quarterback while Tom Brady was suspended. They haven’t lost three straight games since 2002 and I fully expect them to come out firing and stomp Buffalo. This line would probably be closer to 17 points if they hadn’t lost their last two games and you’ll need to look elsewhere for the “hot take” guy who will explain why the Patriots lose this one.
Josh Allen Has Proven His Worth as Bills Quarterback
Coming out of the University of Wyoming, the book on rookie QB Josh Allen was that he was poor against higher-end competition and that he shrank in big games. While those assessments may still prove to be true, one thing for certain is that when he’s mobile, the Bills have been successful. Allen has rushed for six touchdowns this season and when he scampers in for a score, the Bills are 4-1 SU and ATS in five games.
Do I think that the Bills can go into Foxborough and win this game? HELLLLLLLLLL NO! But I do think they have a shot to keep it close and it’s mainly because of their defense. Buffalo ranks first in passing yards allowed per game, is 10th in rushing yards per game and leads the NFL in forced fumbles. They’ve also covered the spread in two of their four games this season when tabbed as a double-digit underdog.
I’m personally not placing a bet on the Bills to cover the spread as I like to keep my money but I can fully understand why a bettor would talk himself or herself into placing that bet with so many weird outcomes in the NFL lately.
When Pats Take The Field, The UNDER Seems To Follow
The total opened at 45 and an UNDER may be in store in the AFC East rivalry. The UNDER has hit in six of the Patriots’ last seven games with an average combined score of 41.5 points per game while the UNDER has hit in five of the Bills’ last six games on the road with an average combined score of 35.6 points per game. There are only two ways I see this game going OVER and that’s if the Bills come out and score the first 14 points of the game or if the Pats decide to drop 40 points on Buffalo to make up for their recent losses.
My Pick Is…
To take the Patriots to win and cover the spread. I can’t see Belichick allowing Josh Allen to run free as he has in recent games and with the Bills’ injuries to their running backs (LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory are questionable to play), I can’t envision how they score more than 10 points.
