Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Preview

Bills Can Clinch No. 2 Seed in AFC With Road Win Over Patriots on MNF

The Buffalo Bills (11-3) may have the chance to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC when they visit the New England Patriots (6-8) as solid road favorites in the Week 16 Monday Night Football matchup.

The Bills ended the 11-year division title reign of the Patriots last Saturday with a 48-19 rout of the Denver Broncos as 6-point road favorites, winning the AFC East for the first time since 1995. A home loss by the Pittsburgh Steelers to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday could give Buffalo a shot at the No. 2 seed with a victory.

Buffalo Bills Vs New England Patriots
  • Date/Time: December 28, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Gillette Stadium                                              
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Sportsbook Odds: Bills -6.5 | O/U 45 (Line History)
  • Bills vs Patriots Matchup Report

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The point spread is now up to -7 in favor of the Bills, who cannot catch Kansas City for the top seed in the AFC because they trail the Chiefs by two games and lost the head-to-head meeting earlier this season for the tiebreaker.

It will be interesting to see if the line moves any further at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark, as New England has already been eliminated from the playoff picture for the first time since 2008. The total is worth watching too, as it is up to 46 despite the offensive struggles of the Patriots in 2020.

Buffalo News & Notes

The battle for seeding with Pittsburgh is a big one considering it will determine which team hosts a potential divisional round playoff matchup. The Steelers are reeling right now and may not even make it that far, and the Tennessee Titans are also still in the mix for the No. 2 seed in the AFC if they can upset the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night.

Tennessee blew out Buffalo 42-16 back in Week 5 to start a four-game skid against the spread for the Bills, who are 6-0 ATS since then, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database. They know how important this game against the Patriots is and would love nothing more than to sweep New England following years of being dominated in this series. 

New England News & Notes

New England closed as a small road favorite vs the Miami Dolphins last Sunday and ended up losing 22-12 as the total went UNDER in the team’s sixth straight game. Offensively, the Patriots have been a huge bust with quarterback Cam Newton under center, casting serious doubt on whether he will be back with them in 2021.

Newton only signed a one-year contract in hopes of proving he could play at a high level again, and bettors know the answer to that right now. New England will also be playing without reigning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in last week’s loss. Gilmore would have likely been responsible for covering Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who ranks first in the league with 111 catches.

Betting Pick: UNDER 46

The Bills have been rolling offensively, but the Patriots have some pride and will not want to be embarrassed on MNF. New England head coach Bill Belichick is well-known as one of the best defensive gurus ever, and he will devise a game plan to hold Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen in check.

Allen threw for just 154 yards in the first meeting earlier this season, a 24-21 home win for the Bills. Look for an even lower-scoring result here.

Shark Bites
  • The Patriots are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.
  • The Bills are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games as a favorite. 
  • The OVER is 10-4 in Buffalo’s last 14 games.
NE is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.home BUF is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games as a favorite. away The OVER is 10-4 in BUF’s last 14 games.away
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