If the season ended today, Buffalo (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) and New Orleans (5-5, 5-5) would be the seventh seeds in their respective conferences. The Bills are just 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five, while the Saints have dropped three straight. New Orleans opened as a 3-point home underdog.

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Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints
  • Date/Time: November 25, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Caesars Superdome
  • TV Coverage: NBC
  • Opening Odds: Bills -3 | O/U 48 (Line History)
  • Bills vs Saints Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

Bettors are still believers in the Bills, betting Buffalo up to a 4.5-point favorite by Monday. The UNDER was also a popular choice in early betting action, dropping the total as low as 46 at many betting sites.

Buffalo News & Notes

Following Sunday’s 41-15 blowout loss at home to Indianapolis, the Bills are facing questions about whether they’re legitimate AFC title contenders after all. Buffalo is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS this season against teams below .500, compared to 1-3 SU and ATS against opponents that currently have winning records.

Indy dominated the Bills on the ground, running for five touchdowns and finishing the contest with 264 rushing yards. Buffalo also contributed to its own demise, turning the ball over four times and failing to generate a takeaway.

“What we put on that field today is not who we are,” quarterback Josh Allen told the Associated Press.

Fortunately for the Bills, they’ve excelled at bouncing back from ugly performances under coach Sean McDermott. Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games following a SU loss and 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss of 14 points or more. The Bills have also covered seven straight against the NFC and are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six prime-time contests.


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New Orleans News & Notes

The Saints have fought the good fight since losing starting quarterback Jameis Winston to injury, but having little margin for error might be taking its toll. After consecutive two-point losses to Atlanta and Tennessee, New Orleans was blown off the field last week in Philadelphia, trailing 27-7 at halftime and 33-7 through three quarters before a late rally made the final score a more respectable 40-29.

The early deficit forced the Saints to go to the air more than they’d like with second-string quarterback Trevor Siemian, who was under pressure throughout the day and threw his first two interceptions of the season. Siemian was also without his top weapon out of the backfield, Alvin Kamara, who missed his second straight game with a knee injury.

Kamara might be out again after the team announced Monday that he wouldn’t have practiced if it were a regular week. If Kamara can’t suit up, expect another heavy workload for Mark Ingram, who had 88 yards on 16 carries against Philadelphia.

How Buffalo Will Cover

Buffalo’s defense has answered the bell after a loss this year, allowing less than 10 points per game following a SU defeat. Expect the Bills to play with plenty of pride on both sides of the ball and focus on shutting down the run to make Siemian beat them through the air.

How New Orleans Will Cover

The Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home underdog, and the crowd becomes an even bigger factor when it’s a prime-time game at the Superdome. As long as New Orleans has a lead or is within a score, the Saints can stay committed to the ground game and rely on their defense.

Computer Pick: New Orleans +4.5

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For more Week 12 predictions, visit our NFL Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
  • New Orleans is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 as an underdog.
  • New Orleans is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last 5 vs Buffalo.
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