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Buffalo Heavily Favored to Snap Losing Streak vs New York

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills evades a tackle in a game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Buffalo Bills opened the season with a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record before losing back-to-back games by double digits to the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills have a golden opportunity to snap their losing streak against the winless New York Jets on the road Sunday afternoon.

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
  • Date/Time: October 25, 1 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: MetLife Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Bills -10 | O/U 47.5 (Line History)
  • Bills vs Jets Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

Bettors have been piling money on the Bills since they opened as 10-point favorites, pushing the line all the way up to Buffalo -13. The total has also seen a significant shift from 47.5 points down to 45.5 points. New York enters this matchup with a 1-4 ATS record in its last five games at home.

Buffalo News & Notes

Over the course of Buffalo’s 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS start to the season, Josh Allen averaged 331.5 passing yards per game, had a completion rate of 70.9 percent and owned a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 12-to-1.

During the Bills’ current 0-2 SU and ATS slump, Allen has averaged 192.5 passing yards per game, is completing only 58.8 percent of his throws and has a TD-to-INT ratio of 4-to-3.

Last season’s 10-7 SU and 9-7-1 ATS campaign was led by a Bills defense that ranked third in the NFL in total defense (allowing 298.3 yards per game) and second in scoring defense (allowing 16.2 points per game).

This year’s Buffalo squad ranks outside the top 20 in both categories, allowing 387.5 total yards and 28 points per game. The Bills will go only as far as Josh Allen and the offense can take them in 2020.

New York News & Notes

How Adam Gase still has a job is anyone’s guess. Gase’s misuse of Le’Veon Bell led the team’s star running back to request his release, which was granted ahead of New York’s game against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday. The Jets lost that game 24-0, falling to 0-6 SU and ATS on the season with a whopping average margin of defeat of 18.3 points.

Sam Darnold has missed New York’s last two games with a shoulder injury and his status is still questionable for this week’s contest against Buffalo. Things weren’t going well with Darnold under center as the Jets averaged only 16.3 points per game in his four starts.

But they’ve been even worse under Joe Flacco with a 30-10 loss to the Arizona Cardinals and last week’s shutout loss to Miami. At this point, all Jets fans have to look forward to this season is potentially earning the No. 1 overall pick.

Betting Pick: Buffalo -13

Buffalo’s average margin of victory across its four wins is only 5.8 points, so laying 13 points isn’t fun. But until the Jets show anything resembling a pulse, there’s no reason to stop fading this season’s most reliable fade.

Shark Bites
  • Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
  • New York is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games vs AFC East teams.
  • The OVER is 4-2 in New York’s last 6 games vs Buffalo.