The defending Super Bowl champions may have stumbled out of the gate compared to last season, but Carson Wentz and the Eagles have started to find their groove. After closing as a 1-point favorite against the Giants last Thursday night, they went on to rout New York by 21 points and they’ll try to carry that momentum into Week 7 against Carolina.
The Panthers hit the road to face their third straight NFC East opponent, going 1-1 against them so far. They barely escaped with a win against New York in Week 5, and then they suffered a frustrating loss to the Redskins last weekend.
Philadelphia is currently set as the 4.5-point home favorite in this matchup, and the total is set at 45.5.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Eagles’ last eight games at home (avg. combined score: 31.13).
- The Eagles are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games at home vs teams with a winning record.
- The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as underdog.
Panthers vs Eagles Game Center
The Eagles to cover the spread is the right pick
Like most sports, football is a game of momentum. Despite the Eagles’ slow start to the season, signs point toward them gathering momentum and being poised to put together a string of wins in the coming weeks.
Carson Wentz returned to the starting lineup in Week 3, but it was clear he had some rust to knock off. Since then, he has steadily improved week by week, improving his QB rating in each successive start. The former North Dakota State QB looked back to his MVP-worthy self last week against the Giants. Look for this high level of play to continue this weekend against a Panthers defense that has given up 21 pass plays of 20-plus yards, while also recording only 12 sacks so far this season.
The Panthers seem to be trending in the opposite direction. If it wasn’t for a last-second 63-yard field goal by Graham Gano, Carolina would be coming into this game on an 0-2 skid. But even though the Panthers snagged a win against the Giants, they dropped a game to Washington last week, only managing to score 17 points. Carolina has also struggled to make big plays on offense, having only two plays all year of 40 or more yards, and a mere 18 plays of 20 or more yards, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL.
With this being their second straight game on the road, it will be tough for them to regroup against a Philadelphia team that leads the league in average offensive time of possession (33:06). I believe the Eagles won’t have much of an issue covering the 4.5-point spread.
Philadelphia has been tough to score on at home
In their last eight games at home, the Eagles have allowed an average of only 10.88 points, while the UNDER has hit in seven of those games with an average combined score of 31.13. This means that they have a +9.37 average point differential across those games. With the spread set at 4.5 in the upcoming game vs the Panthers, I like how those numbers look.
The Eagles defense as a whole is underrated. They’re tied for fifth in the league at this point of the season in points allowed per game, only surrendering an average of 19.5 points per contest. A large factor contributing to their ability to keep offenses from scoring is that they’re fantastic in stopping the run. They’re currently allowing the second-fewest yards rushing per game, limiting teams to just 79.8 yards, which is a huge factor to keeping teams from scoring touchdowns when they’re in the red zone.
This spells trouble for the Panthers offense, which relies on the run game to move the ball. They currently rank fourth in the league in rushing yards per game with 139.4, so they’ll find it hard to get the points they need to keep up with the Eagles if they can’t find a way past the stout Philadelphia run defense. If they aren’t able to move the chains on the ground, they’ll have to look to the air to try to do so. They’re subpar in passing offense, ranking 26th in yards per game through the air.
The UNDER is also in play
On top of the aforementioned stat that Eagles games have a combined score of 31.13 points in the last eight contests at Lincoln Financial Field, there are some other signs that point to the UNDER being a viable bet in this game.
Both the Panthers and the Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league in combined points per game this season, with Panthers games averaging 47 combined points a game, while Eagles games sit at 42.33. The total is set in the middle of those two numbers at 45.5, but I think the tough Eagles run defense will put a damper on Carolina’s ability to score points. The Panthers are right in the middle of almost every significant team stat on defense, which means they don’t have any glaring holes and shouldn’t give up a boatload of points.
My pick for this game is the Eagles to cover the 4.5-point spread, but if you prefer to bet on the total, then I would lean toward the UNDER.
