Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Losing their last two games by a combined four points, the Carolina Panthers will look to regroup and try to get back in the win column when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Panthers have dropped three straight and are free-falling in the NFC playoff picture but have beaten the Bucs three straight times by an average margin of 10.3 points per game. Tampa is coming off an easy win over the Niners to break a four-game losing streak and is 3-2 SU in five home games this season.

The Panthers opened as 4-point favorites with a total of 56.

Panthers vs Buccaneers Game Center

Panthers Have Been an Awful Road Bet This Season

After starting the season 6-2 SU in eight games, Carolina had the look of when it went 15-1 SU during the 2015 regular season on the way to the Super Bowl. Well, the Panthers have gone down the tube with the recent play of their defense that gave up the game-winning scores in their last two losses to drop them to 6-5 SU.

The Panthers are still pretty solid in certain facets like rushing the ball (ranked third) and getting first downs (ranked ninth) and QB Cam Newton might be having one of his best seasons under center with 22 TDs and only seven interceptions. So, why aren’t they rolling teams? It’s mainly because of their defense. Carolina is ranked 21st in points allowed per game (25.6) and 22nd in passing defense by allowing 260.1 yards per game through the air. That has translated to far too many first downs (23rd) to be considered an elite defense while also ranking 22nd in third-down conversion.

At 1-4 SU and ATS in five road games this season, Carolina is putting the nail in its own coffin if it doesn’t start taking care of business in away games. The Panthers’ lone road win required a 21-point fourth quarter vs the Eagles. If bettors are willing to overlook the away game trends and go with recent history, they should know the Panthers are 8-2 SU in the last 10 games in this matchup and 4-1 SU in their last five trips to Raymond James Stadium.

Buccaneers Offense Still Moves The Chains

Sitting at 4-7 SU, the season isn’t technically over for the Buccaneers but it may as well be. The Bucs are 2-7 SU in their last nine games with the two wins coming against the Browns and Niners, who aren’t exactly Super Bowl contenders. The back-and-forth switch between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick may seem like a tough variable to project how Tampa will perform but so far, they’ve been nearly identical:

While both quarterbacks have had their share of trouble keeping the ball – the Bucs lead the NFL with 23 interceptions and 29 total turnovers – when they have it, they can still move the ball on almost any team. The Buccaneers lead the NFL in total yards per game and rank ninth in points per game.

The defense has been non-existent for the Bucs this season as they give up 30.7 points per game and they’re getting torched through the air by allowing 274.3 yards per game, which may allow Cam Newton to have a big day against this dumpster fire of a secondary. Considering they’re 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games in this matchup and Jameis Winston is expected to start again for Tampa Bay, I can’t endorse a Buccaneers cover, even with how lousy the Panthers have been on the road.

Tampa Bay is the best OVER Bet in the NFL

With the turnovers and porous defense, the Buccaneers have helped to line the pockets of totals bettors this season. The OVER has hit in eight of their 11 games this season with an average combined score of 57.2 points per game. The Panthers have also been involved in some shootouts lately and the OVER has hit in four of their last five games with an average combined score of 59.2.

My Pick Is…

To take the Panthers to win and cover. This will be my last time wagering on the Panthers if they can’t come through this time. With three straight losses and the fact that they’ve owned this matchup, this has all the makings of a Panthers blowout.