Ceedee Lamb 2024 NFL Season Player Prop Odds

Ceedee Lamb 2024 NFL Player Prop Odds: How Lamb's Holdout Affects Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds

Ceedee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys are at an impasse. His employers seem to be less than enthused to reset the wide receiver market with a record setting contract for their fifth-year star.

Here's all of Ceedee's 2024 NFL Season Player Prop odds, and how a potential holdout will affect his performance.

Ceedee Lamb 2024 NFL Season Player Prop Odds

CeeDee Lamb 2024 NFL Player Prop Odds
PropOdds
Offensive Player of the Year+850
Total Receiving TouchdownsO 9.5 (+100)/U 9.5 (-125)
Most NFL Receiving Touchdowns+800
Total Receiving YardsO 1350.5 (+110)/U 1350.5 (-135)
Most NFL Receiving Yards+600
2024 NFL MVP+15000

 

The history of NFL holdouts isn't pretty. Former Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell famously sat out the 2018 season while seeking a long-term deal. If you asked him now, he'd likely take the reported five-year, $70 million deal Pittsburgh presented him with.

Lamb will have to reach some lofty heights to cash his player prop overs this NFL season. Should he miss training camp, or really any further time at all this off-season, bettors should hammer his unders.

While holdouts like Emmitt Smith of the very same Dallas Cowboys have gone on to some success, those stories are few and far between. For example, Smith didn't play till Week 3 of the 1993 NFL season. With his Cowboys stumbling to an 0-2 record, Jerry Jones paid up. Dallas would go on to win another Super Bowl in which Smith was named the game's MVP.

In 1999, St. Louis Rams running back Marshall Faulk held out the first twelve days of training camp. He went on to total a career best 2,429 scrimmage yards (a 1000 rushing yard/1000 receiving yard season!) and 12 touchdowns. The Rams marched to a Super Bowl title.

At the same time, Smith and Faulk are no mere mortals. They're running back royalty and should be treated as such. Holdouts are far more likely to end in the way Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson's did in 2007, when he skipped training camp. Johnson ended up missing eight contests, and rushed for just 559 yards on 3.5 yards per carry.

Perhaps most intriguingly, Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Joey Galloway held out for 101 days of the 1999 season. Galloway had put up huge numbers with over 2000 receiving yards and 22 touchdowns over the previous two years, and decided his contract wasn't up to snuff. He ended up missing half the season and returning to Seattle without a new deal. Galloway finished with just 22 receptions for 335 yards and a single touchdown in eight games that season.

Ceedee Lamb Player Prop Best Bets

While these player props look like huge numbers, Lamb has reeled in 395 catches for 5,145 yards and 32 touchdowns in only 66 career games. He's coming off a season in which he led the NFL with 135 receptions, turning those into 1749 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Dak Prescott loves to pepper his No. 1 wideout with targets, as his 181 from a year ago display. He's also surpassed 1350 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons.

Three of the last five NFL Offensive Player of the Year award winners being wide receivers puts Lamb straight into the conversation. After all, Cooper Kupp just won the award in his fifth NFL season in 2020. He's also unlikely to miss much time (if any) as the Cowboys undoubtedly understand the affect on their Super Bowl hopes without him.

However, he's coming off a season in which he led the league in targets. On top of that, the Cowboys offense stalled everytime an opposing defensive coordinator was able to slow Lamb down. Mike McCarthy and the Dallas' brass see this, Dak Prescott sees this, heck the whole world saw it on live television. The Cowboys would be doing themselves a disservice were they to enter the 2024 NFL season with the same gameplan.

Similarly, Lamb led the NFL in red zone targets with 31, reeling in 18 catches inside the opponents' 20. He hauled in only 12 touchdowns. We have to believe a touchdown regression is coming. It's inevitable. For context, the year after Cooper Kupp won Offensive Player of the Year, he caught just six touchdown passes. Michael Thomas followed up his trophy laden season with a whopping zero touchdowns in seven games. 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson put up only five touchdowns last season in 10 games played. Lamb's numbers are bound to regress in 2024.

While the former Oklahoma star remains one of the NFL's greatest wide receivers, I love the value in betting his unders for the upcoming year. The market I'm targeting is Ceedee Lamb UNDER 9.5 touchdowns at -125 odds.

Ceedee Lamb 2024 NFL Player Prop Best Bet: UNDER 9.5 Touchdowns (-125)

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