The Buffalo Bills are a bad football team. To give them credit, they held the Patriots in check for most of their Monday night game, but they ultimately faltered and dropped another contest to big brother Tom Brady. Since losing their rookie QB Josh Allen, they’ve been an abysmal team that’s hard to watch.
Many expected the Chicago Bears to be right there with the Bills at the bottom of the league this season, but they’ve surprisingly been one of the better teams across the NFL. Trading for Khalil Mack before the start of the season has turned into a fantastic move, but he’s currently battling an ankle injury so his status is questionable for this week’s game in Buffalo.
The Bears opened as 9-point favorites on the road, but the line has already moved to 10. The total is set at 37.5, which is the lowest of any game across the NFL this season.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Bills’ last six games (avg. combined score: 31.0).
- The Bills are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.
- The Bears haven’t been road favorites of more than 7 points since 2008.
Don’t dare put money on the Bills, take Bears ATS
It’s always hard to put money on a road team that’s favored by more than a touchdown, but when I look at this game I can’t find a single reason to justify betting on the Bills.
The Bears are averaging 27.6 points per game, while the Bills are averaging only 10.9, so if those averages stay somewhat true in this matchup, Chicago should cover. The Bears are 4-3 ATS so far this season, while the Bills are only 3-5 ATS.
The Bills are going to be tired heading into this game as they’re on a short week after playing Monday night against the Patriots, and they’ve yet to have their bye week. A team with a banged-up offense on a short week that hasn’t had any rest this season begs to be faded.
The Bills offense is historically bad
Buffalo’s offense wasn’t the best to begin with outside of that surprise beatdown of the Vikings in Week 3, but since Josh Allen went down with an injury, the Bills have been downright terrible. Last week they rolled with Derek Anderson, but after an injury late on Monday night, they may need to start Nathan Peterman, who has a 31.4 career QB rating with only three TDs and nine INTs.
As I stated above, the Bills are averaging only 10.9 points per game at this point of the season. We’d have to go back to 2009 to find a team that finished with an average that low, when the Rams finished the year at that same mark. They finished 1-15 SU that season. It’s possible that the Bills should feel lucky that they already have two wins this season, because based on those offensive numbers they may be due for an even worse second half of the season.
Buffalo also sits second-last in the league in yards per game, only managing 246.4 per outing, and if Nathan Peterman gets the start, there’s little to no chance the Bills will surpass that number. Furthermore, they sit second-last in first downs per game and third-down conversion percentage. All in all, they’re an absolute dumpster fire of a team and one of the worst products across the NFL right now.
The total is set at the lowest of the year
The total in this game is set at 37.5. The last time we saw a total set lower than this was November 19, 2017, when the Jags and Browns were set at 36.5 and the game finished UNDER with only 26 points being scored.
Despite the extremely low total, I still think the UNDER is the play if you feel like betting on the total. I’m starting to run out of adjectives to describe the Bills offense, but I think by this point you know how I feel about them.
For me to take the OVER in this one, I’d be expecting the Bears offense to cover it almost completely by themselves, and I don’t think they can do that. The Bills defense kept the Patriots offense at bay almost the entire game, and they’re surprisingly ranked sixth in the league in yards allowed per game, only allowing opposing teams 329.1 yards per contest. I expect something around a 20-6 type of game, so I’m leaning toward the UNDER.
