Once NFC Favorites, Bears and Rams Stumble Into Sunday Night

Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky broke out of an offensive funk to pass for three touchdowns in a 20-13 victory over the Lions to improve the Bears’ record to 4-5 straight up, but they’re just 3-6 against the spread despite covering the -6.5 Sunday.

Coming off their bye week, Jared Goff and the Rams offense were held to 4.4 yards per play in a 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh. Los Angeles drops to 5-4 straight up and 6-3 against the spread.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Rams opened as 7.5-point home favorites before the consensus odds shaved an entire point off to Los Angeles -6.5. Chicago’s moneyline opened at +262 and the point total at 42, but the consensus OVER/UNDER dipped to 41 by Monday. The total has gone UNDER in four consecutive Rams games with an average combined score of 34.25 points.

Los Angeles is 7-3 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 7 points. The OVER has hit in seven straight games in that situation. The Bears are 2-8 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 7 points, but they haven’t been this much of a road dog since Week 1 of the 2018 season. Chicago covered +7 at Green Bay on that day.

Chicago News & Notes

It’s hard to glean too much useful betting information from Chicago’s 20-13 win over the Lions. Or is it?

Yes, the Lions were without Matthew Stafford. Try as he might, backup Jeff Driskel completed just 27 of 46 passes for 269 yards and a touchdown. However, on top of a team-high 37 rushing yards, Driskel engineered two fourth-quarter drives that came up 25 yards short of tying the game against one of the league’s top defenses.

Mitch Trubisky faced one of the league’s worst defenses and one of only three that allows more than 400 yards per game. Even with the friendly matchup, Trubisky could only muster 173 passing yards, the Bears averaged 3.4 yards per rush attempt and converted two of 12 on third down.

So, perhaps we did learn something and that’s even in victory, the Bears are who we thought they were. Chicago’s offense is averaging 19.2 points per game over its past five contests and shows few signs that head coach Matt Nagy has the solution hidden in his playbook.

Trubisky got hit seven times and sacked five times by a Lions pass rush averaging 2.1 sacks per game. This is sub-optimal when Chicago’s O-line is about to face Aaron Donald, Dante Fowler and a Rams pass rush averaging 4.3 sacks per game over the past three contests.

Chicago will once again lean on its rush defense to slow down Todd Gurley, who averaged 6.1 yards per rush against the Steelers. The Bears allow the fourth-fewest yards per rush at 3.7 yards per pop.

On the injury front, linebacker Danny Trevathan suffered a gnarly elbow injury that will take some time to heal.

Los Angeles News & Notes

Where to begin with a bad loss at Pittsburgh fresh off a bye week?

The Rams offense did not score a touchdown, was 1-for-14 on third down, only reached the red zone once, turned the ball over four times, allowed nine hits and four sacks of Jared Goff and the team committed 10 penalties for 95 yards. Other than that, Sean McVay, how was the play?

Prior to their Week 9 bye, Los Angeles beat up the Falcons and Rams by a combined score of 61-20 as Cooper Kupp’s Comeback Player of the Year odds skyrocketed. Against Pittsburgh, Kupp was held without a catch.

Despite the Week 10 setback at Pittsburgh, recent trends suggest a Week 11 bounce-back against an inferior offense:

* The Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
* The Rams are 10-3 SU in their last 13 home games.
* The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite.
* The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss.

After suffering his second concussion of the season, wide receiver Brandin Cooks has been ruled out again.

Betting Pick: UNDER 41

With an average combined score of 33.5, the total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Bears’ last 14 games. Chicago remains an offensively flawed squad that will be lucky to score 14 points this Sunday night.